[B007] Analysis of the Effects of the Thai Power Development Plan 2015 on Air Quality from 2016 to 2036
2 1 UNC Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina, 100 Europa Drive, Suite 490 Campus Box 1105 Chapel Hill, NC 27517 USA. 2 The Joint Graduate School for Energy and Environment (JGSEE), Centre for Energy Technology and Environment (C
3 The Joint Graduate School for Energy and Environment (JGSEE), Centre for Energy Technology and Environment (CEE-PERDO), King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT), 126 Pracha-Uthit Road, Bangmod, Tungkru, Bangkok 10140, Thailand.
4 The Joint Graduate School for Energy and Environment (JGSEE), Centre for Energy Technology and Environment (CEE-PERDO), King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT), 126 Pracha-Uthit Road, Bangmod, Tungkru, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Air pollution is a serious issue that affects many parts of the world, Southeast Asia in particular. Nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and other emissions have negative impacts on human health as well as overall environmental quality. The major sources in Thailand are open burning and fossil fuel combustion, i.e. in vehicles, energy use in industries and power generation. Given increasing actual and projected GDP growth, subsequent increases in energy consumption are inevitable. The power generation system must grow and expand as well to meet changes in demand from industrial, commercial, and residential customers. The Ministry of Energy of Thailand has published the Power Development Plan 2015 (PDP 2015) to outline policies and goals of the growing power generation and transmission systems throughout the nation. Notably, the plan involves increasing the use of coal-fired generation. Using both the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies Model (GAINS) and the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), we have compared two different emissions scenarios: one with standard emission control technology, and another with maximum feasible emission controls. The effectiveness of emission control technology varied by region and pollutant. The greatest increase in air quality was located around the Rayong province in central Thailand. For PM10 in the northern Thailand, however, emission control technologies did little to improve the air quality because the main source of pollutant, biomass burning, was left unabaited. This forecast of air quality can show possible impacts from future emissions in Thailand and regions that may benefit from added emission control technology in the future.
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