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Ugo Bardi      
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Ugo Bardi published an article in February 2019.
Top co-authors See all
Alessandro Lavacchi

113 shared publications

Institute of Chemistry of Organometallic Compounds (ICCOM)-National Research Council (CNR), 50019 Sesto Fiorentino (FI), Italy

Stefano Caporali

64 shared publications

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Via S. Marta 3, 50139 Firenze, Italy;(N.C.);(S.C.)

Sgouris Sgouridis

40 shared publications

Engineering Systems and Management, Masdar Institute, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Aled Jones

34 shared publications

Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, East Road, Cambridge CB1-1PT, UK

Jordi Sole

24 shared publications

Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta 27–39, 08003 Barcelona, Spain

146
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Distribution of Articles published per year 
(1988 - 2019)
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24
 
Publications See all
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Peak oil, 20 years later: Failed prediction or useful insight? Ugo Bardi Published: 01 February 2019
Energy Research & Social Science, doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2018.09.022
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
20 years ago, in 1998, Scientific American published a paper by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère titled “The End of Cheap Oil” [1], starting a debate on oil depletion continuing to the present day. It was the return of a viewpoint on oil depletion which had been proposed more than 40 years before by Marion King Hubbert [2]⁠ and, in later years, largely forgotten. In their paper, Campbell and Laherrère updated Hubbert’s model with new reserve estimates and proposed that the world’s crude oil production would peak around 2004–2005, and then start an irreversible decline. Shortly afterward, Colin Campbell proposed the term “peak oil” for the highest global oil production level. The term was to become popular over the following decade, generating a true movement of ideas sometimes called the “peak oil movement.” Today, these predictions turn out to have been only partially correct, mainly because the role of “non-conventional” oil was underestimated. The peak oil movement seems to have faded away, while the concept seems to have disappeared from the debate and to be commonly described has having been “wrong.” The present paper reviews the cycle of the peak oil movement, examining how the peak oil concept was understood with the public and the decision makers and what caused its diffusion and its demise, at least up to the present time.
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Mechanisms of meme propagation in the mediasphere: a system dynamics model Ilaria Perissi, Sara Falsini, Ugo Bardi Published: 14 January 2019
Kybernetes, doi: 10.1108/k-05-2017-0192
DOI See at publisher website
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Toward a General Theory of Societal Collapse: A Biophysical Examination of Tainter’s Model of the Diminishing Returns of... Ugo Bardi, Sara Falsini, Ilaria Perissi Published: 11 January 2019
BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, doi: 10.1007/s41247-018-0049-0
DOI See at publisher website
PREPRINT 0 Reads 0 Citations Potential European Emissions Trajectories within the Global Carbon Budget Ilaria Perissi, Falsini Sara, Ugo Bardi, Davide Natalini, Mi... Published: 16 November 2018
doi: 10.20944/preprints201810.0365.v3
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
The Global Carbon Budget is the cumulative carbon emissions that human activities can generate while limiting the global temperature increase to less than 2°C. On this basis, most countries ratified the Paris Agreement 2015, pledging to reduce national emissions and the impacts of climate change. The European Union has planned to reduce emissions by 80% of their 1990 value by 2050 but such a target needs to be coupled with a further constraint on the cumulative greenhouse gases released along the path to 2050. The aim and the novelty of this study are to propose, for the first time, a carbon budget for the European Union, which represents the most significant physical characteristic to assess the feasibility of current EU-28 greenhouse gas reduction objectives under the goals of the 2015 Paris treaty
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Potential European Emissions Trajectories within the Global Carbon Budget Ilaria Perissi, Sara Falsini, Ugo Bardi, Davide Natalini, Mi... Published: 15 November 2018
Sustainability, doi: 10.3390/su10114225
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
The Paris Agreement, ratified in 2015, pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within a Global Carbon Budget that limits the global temperature increase to less than 2 °C. With the Roadmap 2050 mitigation measures, the European Union has a target to reduce emissions by 80% of their 1990 value by 2050 but without giving an estimation or a maximum ceiling for the total amount of cumulative greenhouse gases emissions over that period. Thus, the impact of the EU regulations on global warming remains unestimated. The aim and the novelty of this study are to develop a set of potential European emissions trajectories, within the Global Carbon Budget and at the same time satisfying the Roadmap 2050 goals. The result of the study highlights the urgency to reinforce mitigation measures for Europe as soon as possible because any delay in policy implementation risks the Roadmap 2050 mitigation package being insufficient to achieve the objectives of the Paris treaty.
PREPRINT 0 Reads 0 Citations Toward a General Theory of Societal Collapse. A Biophysical Examination of Tainter s Model of the Diminishing Returns of... Ugo Bardi, Sara Falsini, Ilaria Perissi Published: 16 October 2018
ABS Show/hide abstract
The collapse of large social systems, often referred to as civilizations or empires, is a well known historical phenomenon, but its origins are the object of an unresolved debate. In this paper, we present a simple biophysical model which we link to the concept that societies collapse because of the diminishing returns of complexity proposed by Joseph Tainter. Our model is based on the description of a socioeconomic system as a trophic chain of energy stocks which dissipate the energy potential of the available resources. The model produces various trajectories of decline, in some cases rapid enough that they can be defined as collapses. At the same time, we observe that the exploitation of the resource stock (production) has a strongly nonlinear relationship with the complexity of the system, assumed to be proportional to the size of the stock termed bureaucracy. These results provide support for Tainter s hypothesis.
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