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published an article in January 2019.
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Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Balancing clean water-climate change mitigation trade-offs Simon Parkinson, Volker Krey, Daniel Huppmann, Taher Kahil, ... Published: 11 January 2019
Environmental Research Letters, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2a3
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Energy systems support technical solutions fulfilling the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal for clean water and sanitation (SDG6), with implications for future energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions. The energy sector is also a large consumer of water, making water efficiency targets ingrained in SDG6 important constraints for long-term energy planning. Here, we apply a global integrated assessment model to quantify the cost and characteristics of infrastructure pathways balancing SDG6 targets for water access, scarcity, treatment and efficiency with long-term energy transformations limiting climate warming to 1.5 °C. Under a mid-range human development scenario, we find that approximately 1 trillion USD2010 per year is required to close water infrastructure gaps and operate water systems consistent with achieving SDG6 goals by 2030. Adding a 1.5 °C climate policy constraint increases these costs by up to 8 %. In the reverse direction, when the SDG6 targets are added on top of the 1.5 °C policy constraint, the cost to transform and operate energy systems increases 2 to 9 % relative to a baseline 1.5 °C scenario that does not achieve the SDG6 targets by 2030. Cost increases in the SDG6 pathways are due to expanded use of energy-intensive water treatment and costs associated with water conservation measures in power generation, municipal, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Combined global spending (capital and operational expenditures) in the integrated SDG6-1.5 °C scenarios to 2030 on water and energy systems increases 92 to 125 % relative to a baseline scenario without 1.5 °C and SDG6 constraints. Evaluation of the multi-sectoral policies underscores the importance of water conservation and integrated water-energy planning for avoiding costs from interacting water, energy and climate goals
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Policy measures for reducing aquifer depletion in a context of climate change: the case of the coastal area of Cap-Bon Ali Chebil, Eaux Et Forêts (Inrgref) Institut National De Re... Published: 15 December 2018
New Medit, doi: 10.30682/nm1804c
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Article 0 Reads 1 Citation A Continental‐Scale Hydroeconomic Model for Integrating Water‐Energy‐Land Nexus Solutions Taher Kahil, Simon Parkinson, Yusuke Satoh, Peter Greve, Pet... Published: 11 October 2018
Water Resources Research, doi: 10.1029/2017wr022478
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This study presents the development of a new bottom‐up large‐scale hydro‐economic model, Extended Continental‐scale Hydro‐economic Optimization (ECHO), that works at a sub‐basin scale over a continent. The strength of ECHO stems from the integration of a detailed representation of local hydrological and technological constraints with regional and global policies, while accounting for the feedbacks between water, energy and agricultural sectors. In this study, ECHO has been applied over Africa as a case study with the aim of demonstrating the benefits of this integrated hydro‐economic modeling framework. Results of this framework are overall consistent with previous findings evaluating the cost of water supply and adaptation to global changes in Africa. Moreover, results provide critical assessments of future investment needs in both supply and demand side water management options, economic implications of contrasting future socio‐economic and climate change scenarios, and the potential tradeoffs among economic and environmental objectives. Overall, this study demonstrates the capacity of ECHO to address challenging research questions examining the sustainability of water supply, and the impacts of water management on energy and food sectors and vice versa. As such, we propose ECHO as useful tool for water‐related scenario analysis and management options evaluation.
Article 0 Reads 2 Citations Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots Edward Byers, Matthew Gidden, David Leclère, Juraj Balkovic,... Published: 01 May 2018
Environmental Research Letters, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aabf45
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Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those 'vulnerable to poverty' from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (income <$10/day, currently 4.2 billion people). We show that global exposure to multi-sector risks approximately doubles between 1.5 °C and 2 °C GMT change, doubles again with 3 °C GMT change and is ~6x between the best and worst cases (SSP1/1.5 °C vs SSP3/3 °C, 0.8–4.7bi). For populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8–32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development (SSP1). Whilst 85%–95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91%–98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7%–17% at 1.5 °C, doubling to 14%–30% at 2 °C and again to 27%–51% at 3 °C. Finally, beyond 2 °C and at higher risk thresholds, the world's poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases (SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable.
Article 1 Read 0 Citations Agriculture and climate change: Potential for mitigation in Spain Jose Albiac, Taher Kahil, Eduardo Notivol, Elena Calvo, Moha... Published: 01 August 2017
Science of The Total Environment, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.110
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Article 7 Reads 4 Citations Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative Yusuke Satoh, Mohamed Taher Kahil, Edward Byers, Peter Burek... Published: 28 July 2017
Earth's Future, doi: 10.1002/2016ef000503
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This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30–40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6–2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.