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Teddy Allen   Dr.  Other 
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Teddy Allen published an article in November 2017.
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Brian E. Mapes

7 shared publications

Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science; University of Miami; Coral Gables FL USA

3
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3
 
Publications
CONFERENCE-ARTICLE 6 Reads 0 Citations The late spring Caribbean rain-belt: climatology and dynamics Teddy Allen, Brian Mapes Published: 11 November 2017
First International Electronic Conference on the Hydrological Cycle, doi: 10.3390/CHyCle-2017-04881
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This study examines the dynamics of late spring rainfall (the Early Rainy Season, ERS) in the Caribbean region, in hopes of identifying mechanistic-based predictors for low-frequency climate modulations of the system. The subtropical Caribbean rain-belt develops in May as seasonal warming proceeds. By July, the rain-belt retreats north apparently following the westerlies and their vigorous synoptic disturbances. Daily climatology data suggest a physical definition of the Caribbean ERS as mid-May to mid-late June. Based on an examination of daily loops for several seasons, we hypothesize that rainfall occurs quasi-randomly throughout tongues of air with sufficiently high (above 45–50 mm) precipitable water (PW). These moist airmasses are brought north from the deep tropics by low-level southerlies, and typically bent over into SW-NE bands by latitudinal shear of the westerlies. The low-level flow that transports PW tongues is partly induced by upper-level synoptic disturbances in the westerlies, but also involves the gentle persistent flow around a geographically anchored Panama Low. While forced ascent is sometimes active ahead of these upper-level troughs, convective and mesoscale processes can produce rain wherever PW is sufficient. In summary, we hypothesize that rainfall hinges largely on the Lagrangian statistics of moist air tongues. Comparison is drawn between the Caribbean rain-belt and its East Asian counterpart (Meiyu-Baiu), and other mechanisms and diagnostics from that literature are discussed. Statistical prediction exercises, based on mechanistically chosen predictors, could both test hypotheses and aid local agricultural interests in the region.

Article 4 Reads 1 Citation The late spring Caribbean rain-belt: climatology and dynamics Theodore L. Allen, Brian E. Mapes Published: 01 June 2017
International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.5136
DOI See at publisher website
Article 2 Reads 0 Citations Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden-Julian oscillation prediction Theodore L. Allen, Brian E. Mapes, Nicholas Cavanaugh Published: 13 May 2016
Atmospheric Science Letters, doi: 10.1002/asl.666
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Linear inverse models (LIMs) are used to explore predictability and information content of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Hindcast skill for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) related to the MJO on intraseasonal timescales in the tropics has been examined for a variety of LIMs using OLR and optionally 200 and 850 hPa zonal wind information channels. The dependence of OLR hindcast skill on wind channels was evaluated by randomizing in time, averaging in space, or omitting data entirely. Results show positive prediction skill (relative to climatology) up to 3 weeks and wind information, mostly at the largest scales, adds 1–2 days of skill.
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