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Aristeidis Koutroulis      
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Aristeidis Koutroulis published an article in February 2019.
Top co-authors See all
I. Tsanis

42 shared publications

School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete—TUC, Chania 73100, Greece

John Caesar

12 shared publications

Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK

K. Wyser

12 shared publications

Rossby Centre, SMHI, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden

Manolis G. Grillakis

12 shared publications

School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete—TUC, Chania 73100, Greece

Lamprini Papadimitriou

8 shared publications

Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK

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Distribution of Articles published per year 
(2009 - 2019)
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22
 
Publications See all
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matt... Published: 01 February 2019
The Cryosphere, doi: 10.5194/tc-13-325-2019
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2∘C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5∘C relative to the pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding +2∘C global average warming relative to the pre-industrial period. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent mass balance model for the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). To do this, we modify JULES to include glaciated and unglaciated surfaces that can exist at multiple heights within a single grid box. Present-day mass balance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation, and temperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed mass balance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, which were downscaled using the high-resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere-only global climate model. The CMIP5 models use the RCP8.5 climate change scenario and were selected on the criteria of passing 2∘C global average warming during this century. The ensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus or minus 1 standard deviation is -64±5% for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The uncertainty in the multi-model mean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to the boundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which lose more than 75% of their initial volume by the end of the century are Alaska, western Canada and the US, Iceland, Scandinavia, the Russian Arctic, central Europe, Caucasus, high-mountain Asia, low latitudes, southern Andes, and New Zealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea level equivalent contribution is 215.2±21.3mm. The largest contributors to sea level rise are Alaska (44.6±1.1mm), Arctic Canada north and south (34.9±3.0mm), the Russian Arctic (33.3±4.8mm), Greenland (20.1±4.4), high-mountain Asia (combined central Asia, South Asia east and west), (18.0±0.8mm), southern Andes (14.4±0.1mm), and Svalbard (17.0±4.6mm). Including parametric uncertainty in the calibrated mass balance parameters gives an upper bound global volume loss of 281.1mm of sea level equivalent by the end of the century. Such large ice losses will have inevitable consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Article 0 Reads 1 Citation Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Ass... Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Lamprini V. Papadimitriou, Manolis... Published: 26 September 2018
Water, doi: 10.3390/w10101331
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
The simulation of hydrological impacts in a changing climate remains one of the main challenges of the earth system sciences. Impact assessments can be, in many cases, laborious processes leading to inevitable methodological compromises that drastically affect the robustness of the conclusions. In this study we examine the implications of different CMIP5-based regional and global climate model ensembles for projections of the hydrological impacts of climate change. We compare results from three different assessments of hydrological impacts under high-end climate change (RCP8.5) across Europe, and we focus on how methodological differences affect the projections. We assess, as systematically as possible, the differences in runoff projections as simulated by a land surface model driven by three different sets of climate projections over the European continent at global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, according to the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. We find that these methodological differences lead to considerably different outputs for a number of indicators used to express different aspects of runoff. We further use a number of new global climate model experiments, with an emphasis on high resolution, to test the assumption that many of the uncertainties in regional climate and hydrological changes are driven predominantly by the prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and we find that results are more sensitive to the choice of the atmosphere model compared to the driving SSTs. Finally, we combine all sources of information to identify robust patterns of hydrological changes across the European continent.
Article 0 Reads 1 Citation Mapping the vulnerability of European summer tourism under 2 °C global warming Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, M. G. Grillakis, I. K. Tsanis, D. ... Published: 26 September 2018
Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-018-2298-8
DOI See at publisher website
Article 0 Reads 8 Citations Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming Daniela Jacob, Lola Kotova, Claas Teichmann, Stefan P. Sobol... Published: 21 February 2018
Earth's Future, doi: 10.1002/2017ef000710
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5oC), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policy makers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5oC warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated.
Article 0 Reads 5 Citations Freshwater vulnerability under high end climate change. A pan-European assessment A.G. Koutroulis, L.V. Papadimitriou, M.G. Grillakis, I.K. Ts... Published: 01 February 2018
Science of The Total Environment, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.074
DOI See at publisher website
Article 0 Reads 1 Citation A method to preserve trends in quantile mapping bias correction of climate modeled temperature Manolis G. Grillakis, Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Ioannis N. D... Published: 28 September 2017
Earth System Dynamics, doi: 10.5194/esd-8-889-2017
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
Bias correction of climate variables is a standard practice in climate change impact (CCI) studies. Various methodologies have been developed within the framework of quantile mapping. However, it is well known that quantile mapping may significantly modify the long-term statistics due to the time dependency of the temperature bias. Here, a method to overcome this issue without compromising the day-to-day correction statistics is presented. The methodology separates the modeled temperature signal into a normalized and a residual component relative to the modeled reference period climatology, in order to adjust the biases only for the former and preserve the signal of the later. The results show that this method allows for the preservation of the originally modeled long-term signal in the mean, the standard deviation and higher and lower percentiles of temperature. To illustrate the improvements, the methodology is tested on daily time series obtained from five Euro CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs).
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