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Timeline of Sonia Quiroga

2019
Feb
01
Published new article




Article

Forest ownership changes in Europe: State of knowledge and conceptual foundations

Published: 01 February 2019 by Elsevier BV in Forest Policy and Economics

doi: 10.1016/j.forpol.2018.03.003

Forest ownership is changing in Europe. Reasons include recent institutional changes in Eastern Europe, changing lifestyles of non-agricultural owners and afforestation. At present, there is little comparative analysis across Europe, and the implications that these changes have for forest management and for the fulfilment and redefinition of policy objectives have not been addressed systematically. This paper has been developed in the framework of a European research network on forest ownership change, based on conceptual work, literature reviews and empirical evidence from 28 European countries. It aims to provide an overview of the state of knowledge, to discuss relevant issues and provide conceptual and practical foundations for future research, forest management approaches, and policy making. In particular, it discusses possible approaches for classifying forest ownership types and understandings of “new” forest ownership. One important insight is that the division into public and private forests is not as clear as often assumed and that an additional category of semi-public (or semi-private) forms of forest ownership would be desirable. Another recommendation is that the concepts of “new forest owners” vs. “new forest owner types” should be differentiated more consciously. We observe that, in research and policy practice, the mutual relations between forest ownership structure and policies are often neglected, for instance, how policies may directly and indirectly influence ownership development, and what different ownership categories mean for the fulfilment of policy goals. Finally, we propose that better support should be provided for the development of new, adapted forest management approaches for emerging forest owner types. Forest ownership deserves greater attention in studies dealing with forest policy or forest management.

4 Reads | 2 Citations
2019
Feb
01
Published new article




Article

What influences European private forest owners' affinity for subsidies?

Published: 01 February 2019 by Elsevier BV in Forest Policy and Economics

doi: 10.1016/j.forpol.2018.08.008

This study analyses the linkages between private forest owners' perceptions of forest management, and their affinity for subsidies, in a range of European countries. Society increasingly requires the provision of ecosystem services from forests, but the willingness of forest owners to redirect management goals from wood production to the provision of public goods is crucial for sustaining ecosystem services. EU incentives in the forestry sector are still mainly oriented towards an anthropocentric vision of forest management. Forest owners and managers are diverse, and although many efforts have been made to understand the role of forest subsidies in private forest management, it is still necessary to analyse the different perspectives on forest subsidies with a regional comparative approach. This paper explores European private forest owners' affinity for subsidies – through survey data at European level—and estimates an ordered probit model to (i) analyse how private forest owners in Europe respond to subsidies in forestry, including regional differences in terms of affinity for subsidies, (ii) characterize the factors that influence these responses and (iii) discuss lessons learned related to forest owners' attitudes on subsidies and the implications for introducing similar kind of incentives such as payments for ecosystem services. Simulations were conducted to examine the potential effects of changes in property fragmentation or the time allotted to forest activities. Forest owners with an utilitarian view of forest management, bigger forest holdings, full or part-time farmers and forest owners from East Europe are most in favour of forest subsidies. Property fragmentation and absenteeism decreases affinity for subsidies.

3 Reads | 0 Citations
2019
Jan
26
Published new article




Article

Insights on Urban and Periurban Adaptation Strategies Based on Stakeholders’ Perceptions on Hard and Soft Responses to C...

Published: 26 January 2019 by MDPI in Sustainability

doi: 10.3390/su11030647

Adapting to expected impacts of climate change is a task shared by multiple institutions and individuals, but much of this work falls over local and regional authorities, which has made them experts over the issue. At the same time, adaptation to climate change has been a research interest in different academic fields; while private companies provide research and development efforts on the issue. Views from perspectives may contain common ground and discrepancies, but benefits from the discussion may differ among these three sectors. This study shows the application of collaborative approaches to analyze impacts and adaptation measures at a local level. A stakeholder workshop was held in the city of Bilbao to discuss impacts of climate change and adaptation in the local context of the Basque Country. The contributions were proposed on three axes: impacts from climate change, good practices proposed or already in action, and costs and benefits derived from those strategies. Participants were asked to rank a series of measures and practices extracted from their previous inputs. These measures were analyzed after applying bootstrapping techniques, according to the perceived costs and benefits assigned to each of the grouped measures and practices. Participants estimated that groups containing green adaptation measures and those that had potentially positive impacts over climate change mitigation were the most efficient measures, as reduced costs combined with high benefits could lead to win–win adaptation strategies, while grey infrastructures were seen as providing high benefits at high costs.

0 Reads | 0 Citations
2018
Dec
01
Published new article




Article

Understanding the drivers for Natura 2000 payments in forests: A Heckman selection analysis

Published: 01 December 2018 by Elsevier BV in Journal for Nature Conservation

doi: 10.1016/j.jnc.2018.07.003

The ecological network Natura 2000 is one element of the common European Union policy regarding biodiversity protection. National implementation of Natura 2000 differs across the European Union. Ecologically valuable forest ecosystems are often within private lands. The aim of this paper is to assess the implementation of the compensation mechanism developed through adapted management of private forests by using the Natura 2000 payments’ measure of the European rural development programmes for the financing period 2007–2014. The econometric Heckman selection model was used to assess the drivers influencing the implementation of the payments measure. Data sources include European and national statistics and expert knowledge. The results show that the countries with the highest proportion of forest cover in Natura 2000 protected areas are the least paid for compensation, and the implementation apparently does not follow the needs of private forests (assuming from the share of private forests in the country). The state of progress in designating Natura 2000 sites can be an important driver for increasing the probability of Natura 2000 payments for those countries accessing the European Union after 1995. Other evidence includes that national economic development is not observed to be significant in explaining the implementation of Natura 2000 payments. The drivers affecting the implementation of Natura 2000 payments are more focused on increasing the competitiveness of the forest sector than supporting environmental sustainability.

4 Reads | 0 Citations
2018
Sep
01
Published new article




Article

The nexus between climate change, ecosystem services and human health: Towards a conceptual framework

Published: 01 September 2018 by Elsevier BV in Science of The Total Environment

doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.323

This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver. The study has the double intention of (i) summarising the literature with a special emphasis on the ecosystem and health perspectives, as well as the main theories behind these impacts, and (ii) modelling these findings into a framework that allows for multidisciplinary approaches to the underlying relations between human health and green spaces. The paper shows that while the literature based on the ecosystem perspective presents a well-documented association between climate, health and green spaces, the literature using a health-based perspective presents mixed evidence in some cases. The role of contextual factors and the exposure mechanism are rarely addressed. The proposed framework could serve as a multidisciplinary knowledge platform for multi-perspecitve analysis and discussion among experts and stakeholders, as well as to support the operationalization of quantitative assessment and modelling exercises.

0 Reads | 2 Citations
2018
Jul
07
Published new article




Article

The INHERIT Model: A Tool to Jointly Improve Health, Environmental Sustainability and Health Equity through Behavior and...

Published: 07 July 2018 by MDPI in International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

doi: 10.3390/ijerph15071435

The need for analysis and action across the interrelated domains of human behaviors and lifestyles, environmental sustainability, health and inequality is increasingly apparent. Currently, these areas are often not considered in conjunction when developing policies or interventions, introducing the potential for suboptimal or conflicting outcomes. The INHERIT model has been developed within the EU-funded project INHERIT as a tool to guide thinking and intersectoral action towards changing the behaviors and lifestyles that play such an important role in today’s multidisciplinary challenges. The model integrates ecological public health and behavioral change models, emphasizing inequalities and those parts of the causal process that are influenced by human behaviors and lifestyles. The model was developed through web-based and live discussions with experts and policy stakeholders. To test the model’s usability, the model was applied to aspects of food consumption. This paper shows that the INHERIT model can serve as a tool to identify opportunities for change in important −food-related behaviors and lifestyles and to examine how they impact on health, health inequalities, and the environment in Europe and beyond. The INHERIT model helps clarify these interrelated domains, creating new opportunities to improve environmental health and health inequality, while taking our planetary boundaries into consideration.

2 Reads | 0 Citations
2018
Jan
01
Published new article






The Value of Meteorological Information in Agrarian Producers’ Decision Making: Introducing Analytic Decision Models

Published: 01 January 2018 by Springer Nature in Economic Tools and Methods for the Analysis of Global Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-99462-8_4

The value of weather information is relevant to society (Leviäkangas and Hautala in Meteorol Appl 16:369–379, 2009; Frei in Meteorol Appl 17:39–44, 2010; Wu et al. in Sci World J, 2014), both because of its influence on agriculture (Regnier in Omega 36:22–32, 2008) and on water resources (Freebairn and Zillman 2002). Meteorological information affects agrarian production due to its capacity of modifying their decisions.

0 Reads | 0 Citations
2017
Nov
01
Published new article




Article

Levelling the playing field for European Union agriculture: Does the Common Agricultural Policy impact homogeneously on ...

Published: 01 November 2017 by Elsevier BV in Land Use Policy

doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.07.057

9 Reads | 1 Citations
2017
Aug
01
Published new article




Article

Understanding private forest owners’ conceptualisation of forest management: Evidence from a survey in seven European co...

Published: 01 August 2017 by Elsevier BV in Journal of Rural Studies

doi: 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2017.06.016

0 Reads | 3 Citations
2017
Jan
01
Published new article




Conference paper

EXPLORING FARMERS’ SELECTION OF CROP PROTECTION LEVELS AS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY TO CLIMATE RISKS

Published: 01 January 2017 by International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences in 7th Economics & Finance Conference, Tel Aviv

doi: 10.20472/efc.2017.007.021

0 Reads | 0 Citations
2017
Jan
01
Published new article




Conference paper

A MICROECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVERS FOR COFFEE CROPS TRANSITION TO CACAO IN MESOAMERICAN COUNTRIES

Published: 01 January 2017 by International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences in 7th Economics & Finance Conference, Tel Aviv

doi: 10.20472/efc.2017.007.020

0 Reads | 0 Citations
2017
Jan
01
Published new article






A microeconometric analysis of climate change drivers for coffee crops transition to cacao in Mesoamerican countries

Published: 01 January 2017 by RePEc

doi:

Climate change will have a permanent impact over Mesoamerican agricultural sector. Present day crops such as coffee may not be enough to secure agricultural subsistence levels, therefore, the first stages of crop diversification are being observed in countries such as Nicaragua. Implementation of new crops such as cocoa may lead to new impacts over the environmental structure of the Mesoamerican ecosystem. These impacts may be of different, nature, but being diversification an already undergoing process attention must be paid to the underlying motivation and decision-making processes involved. This study analyses subjacent motivations and contexts that lead to the potential incorporation of cocoa crops in present-day Nicaraguan coffee farms. In order to achieve that, three main motivations were identified: climatic, economic and governmental. An econometric analyse was performed over the variables that affect farmers? motivations and decisions, in order first to analyse this decision-making process, and second, to understand how social and climatic evolution over the next decades will impact the context under which agricultural output is shaped. It was found that climatic perspectives are most closely affecting the smallholders? decision of incorporating cocoa plantations into their farms. Therefore, climate change will most certainly have a major role in the reshaping of agricultural structure in most of Nicaraguan geography. Moreover, results show a lower impact of market conditions and public subsidies over farmers? choices and decisions. These results favour the intuition that risk-reduction is a preferred strategy among Nicaraguan smallholders.

6 Reads | 0 Citations
2017
Jan
01
Published new article






Exploring farmers? selection of crop protection levels as an adaptation strategy to climate risks

Published: 01 January 2017 by RePEc

doi:

Among the challenges facing the European Union agricultural sector in the coming years, the impacts of climate change could lead to much greater variability in farmers? incomes. In this context, the insurance industry will have to develop new instruments to cover farmers? incomes against losses due to meteorological factors. Some protective technologies that farmers can use for climate risk management have associated costs that vary as a function of the losses involved. These sorts of instruments compete with other less flexible instruments such as crop insurance. We here analyse an issue of decision-making, where the farmer can decide how much to invest in protection, as in situations where the farmer chooses which portion of a loss to protect in the case of adverse weather conditions, and we propose optimal management to mitigate the increasing negative effects of climate uncertainty. By analysing the optimal policy in a continuous choice situation, we consider whether farmers, as part of their crop management duties, should opt to protect some portion of their harvest value with available technologies, or whether they should protect the entire crop. To analyse this decision-making problem, we employ the cost-loss ratio model and take risk aversion into account.

5 Reads | 0 Citations
2016
Nov
22
Published new article






<strong>Mapping coffee producers&rsquo; transition to cocoa as a response to global change: smallholders&rsquo; water ne...

Published: 22 November 2016 by MDPI AG in The 1st International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences

doi: 10.3390/ecws-1-e004

<p>Coffee producers in Mesoamerica are already facing some of the expected challenges arising from pressures derived by climate change, principally lowered water supply. Some farmers have implemented strategies of adaptation based on crop diversification, being the introduction of cocoa one of the main alternatives. The focus of this research is to analyse coffee producers&rsquo; perceptions on changing from coffee to cocoa as an adaptation strategy. This research tries to find the factors that smallholders take into account when facing the decision of introducing cocoa. Here we simulate the farmers&rsquo; response to climate factors and water needs, also considering its relationship with humankind, specially through variables related to economic and social development. Farmers&rsquo; perceptions were extracted via a specifically designed questionnaire applied to 219 small coffee producers in the departments of Esteli and Jinotega in Nicaragua. A Multivariate probit econometric model was estimated to analyse diversification through three simultaneous equations&mdash;for climatic, economic and social development drivers. &nbsp;Marginal effects of these drivers were calculated and used to simulate farmers&rsquo; response to global change scenarios. Regional distribution of crop diversification probability was mapped considering different global change scenarios. The importance of climatic factors over the decision process is, as data shows, higher than social and economic issues. The environmental implications of this change, such as deforestation, have also been discussed.</p>

4 Reads | 0 Citations
2016
Jun
15
Published new article




Article

Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

Published: 15 June 2016 by Copernicus GmbH in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

doi: 10.5194/nhess-16-1369-2016

This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural incomes in Spanish rural areas. Present research has focused on the effects of these extreme climatological events through response functions, considering effects on crop productivity and average incomes. Among the impacts of droughts, we focused on potential effects on income distribution. The study of the effects on abnormally dry periods is therefore needed in order to perform an analysis of diverse social aspects in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a measure of the decomposition of inequality to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. Certain adaptation measures may require a better understanding of risks by the public to achieve general acceptance. We provide empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two impacts considered: farms' average income and income distribution. Our estimates consider crop production response to both biophysical and socio-economic aspects to analyse long-term implications on competitiveness and disparities. As for the results, we find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analysed.

0 Reads | 1 Citations
2015
Jan
01
Published new article




Article

Exploring coffee farmers’ awareness about climate change and water needs: Smallholders’ perceptions of adaptive capacity

Published: 01 January 2015 by Elsevier BV in Environmental Science & Policy

doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.09.007

0 Reads | 7 Citations
2015
Jan
01
Published new article




Article

Analysing the economic value of meteorological information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic contex...

Published: 01 January 2015 by Asociacion Española de Economia Agraria in Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales

doi: 10.7201/earn.2015.02.01

We evaluate the added value of a forecast service that can provide probabilistic predictions for adverse weather events for two differentiated seasons, corresponding to the same productive cycle. The paper builds on a cost-loss dynamic model, by considering the role of forecasting systems in the decision making process. We present the analytical solution for this problem which is consistent with the numerical results in the literature. However, we prove that there is a range of regions for the optimal policy depending on the cost of crop protection, the avoided loss and the quality of the information available. Finally, we illustrate the results with a numerical example.

0 Reads | 0 Citations
2014
Nov
03
Published new article




Article

Do Water Rights Affect Technical Efficiency and Social Disparities of Crop Production in the Mediterranean? The Spanish ...

Published: 03 November 2014 by MDPI in Water

doi: 10.3390/w6113300

The coming agenda for the European Common Agricultural Policy includes more incentives for the environmental compliance of farmer’s activities. This will be particularly important in the case of water risk management in Mediterranean countries. Among the new challenges is the need to evaluate some of the instruments necessary to comply with the Water Framework Directive requirements that emphasize the management of water demand to achieve the environmental targets. Here we analyze the implications of changing water rights as a policy response to these challenges. We analyze two important aspects of the decision: (i) the effects on the crop productivity and efficiency and (ii) the effects on the rural income distribution. We provide the empirical estimations for the marginal effects on the two considered aspects. First, we calculate a stochastic frontier production function for five representative crops using historical data to estimate technical efficiency. Second, we use a decomposition of the Gini coefficient to estimate the impact of irrigation rights changes on yield disparity. In our estimates, we consider both bio-physical and socio-economic aspects to conclude that there are long term implications on both efficiency and social disparities. We find disparities in the adaptation strategies depending on the crop and the region analyzed.

4 Reads | 3 Citations
2013
Jul
28
Published new article




Article

Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural land use suitability of the Hungarian counties

Published: 28 July 2013 by Springer Nature in Regional Environmental Change

doi: 10.1007/s10113-013-0518-3

Central and Eastern European countries are a hotspot area when analyzing the impacts of climate change on agricultural and environmental sectors. This paper conducts a socio-economic evaluation of climate risks on crop production in Hungary, using panel data models. The region has a special location in the Carpathian basin, where the spatial distribution of precipitation varies highly from humid conditions in the western part to semiarid conditions in eastern Hungary. Under current conditions, crop systems are mainly rainfed, and water licences are massively underexploited. However, water stress projected by climate change scenarios could completely change this situation. In the near future (2021–2050), most of the crops examined could have better climatic conditions, while at the end of the century (2071–2100), lower yields are expected. Adaptation strategies must be based on an integrated evaluation which links economic and climatic aspects, and since the results show important differences in the case of individual systems, it is clear that the response has to be crop and region specific.

0 Reads | 3 Citations
2013
May
01
Published new article




Article

Exploring public support for climate change adaptation policies in the Mediterranean region: A case study in Southern Sp...

Published: 01 May 2013 by Elsevier BV in Environmental Science & Policy

doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2013.01.010

0 Reads | 16 Citations
2013
Jan
01
Published new article




Article

Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe

Published: 01 January 2013 by Springer Nature in Regional Environmental Change

doi: 10.1007/s10113-012-0388-0

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes.

2 Reads | 4 Citations
2012
Jan
31
Published new article




Article

Adaptando la agricultura al cambio climático

Published: 31 January 2012 by Asociacion Española de Economia Agraria in Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales

doi: 10.7201/earn.2011.02.05

We evaluate the potential impacts and measure the potential limits of adaptation of agri culture to climate change. Pressures on land and water resources are expected to intensify existing risks in low latitude areas – e.g., South-East Asia deltas – and in regions with current water scarcity – e.g. Mediterranean, and create new opportunities in some northern temperate areas – e.g., Northern Russia, Northern Europe. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating the costs and benefits of a number of technical and policy actions. The discussion aims to assist stakeholders facing the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.

2 Reads | 0 Citations
2011
Nov
30
Published new article




Article

A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe

Published: 30 November 2011 by Springer Nature in Climatic Change

doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0338-8

The effects of climate change will be felt by most farmers in Europe over the next decades. This study provides consistent results of the impact of climate change on arable agriculture in Europe by using high resolution climate data, socio-economic data, and impact assessment models, including farmer adaptation. All scenarios are consistent with the spatial distribution of effects, exacerbating regional disparities and current vulnerability to climate. Since the results assume no restrictions on the use of water for irrigation or on the application of agrochemicals, they may be considered optimistic from the production point of view and somewhat pessimistic from the environmental point of view. The results provide an estimate of the regional economic impact of climate change, as well as insights into the importance of mitigation and adaptation policies.

4 Reads | 25 Citations
2011
Nov
30
Published new article




Article

From climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies: Challenges for agriculture in Europe

Published: 30 November 2011 by Springer Nature in Climatic Change

doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0344-x

This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture in Europe. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in southern regions, and create new opportunities in some northern areas. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across European regions by analysing over 300 highly relevant publications that appeared in the last decade. The result is a synthesis of the reasons for concern for European agricultural regions. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating the costs and benefits of a number of technical and policy actions. The results highlight the importance of enhanced water use efficiency as a critical response to climate risks and the need for a more effective extension service. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.

5 Reads | 28 Citations
2011
Oct
31
Published new article




Article

Impactos y capacidad de adaptación como factores determinantes para priorizar la adaptación agrícola al cambio climático...

Published: 31 October 2011 by Asociacion Española de Economia Agraria in Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales

doi: 10.7201/earn.2011.01.03

In the face of likely climate change impacts policy makers at different spatial scales need access to assessment tools that enable informed policy instruments to be designed. Recent scientific advances have facilitated the development of improved climate projections, but it remains to be seen whether these are translated into effective adaptation strategies. This paper uses existing databases on climate impacts on European agriculture and combines them with an assessment of adaptive capacity to develop an interdisciplinary approach for prioritising policies. It proposes a method for identifying relevant policies for different EU countries that are representative of various agroclimatic zones. Our analysis presents a framework for integrating current knowledge of future climate impacts with an understanding of the underlying socio-economic, agricultural and environmental traits that determine a region’s capacity for adapting to climate change.

0 Reads | 0 Citations
2011
Oct
14
Published new article




Article

Proyecciones del impacto económico del cambio climático sobre la agricultura en Europa

Published: 14 October 2011 by Asociacion Española de Economia Agraria in Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales

doi: 10.7201/earn.2007.14.04

This study provides monetary estimates of the impacts of climate change in European agriculture. Future scenarios are derived from several socio-economic scenarios and experiments conducted using global climate models and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model across simulations based on crop productivity changes that consider no restrictions in the volume of water available for irrigation in current irrigated areas or in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Thus the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view. Regional differences between northern and southern European countries are found and the monetary estimates show that uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than uncertainty derived from climate scenarios.

0 Reads | 1 Citations
2011
Jul
19
Published new article




Article

Looking into the future of agriculture in a changing climate

Published: 19 July 2011 by Oxford University Press (OUP) in European Review Of Agricultural Economics

doi: 10.1093/erae/jbr037

Looking into the future of agriculture raises three challenging questions: How can agriculture deal with an uncertain future? How do local vulnerabilities and global disparities respond to this uncertain future? How should we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting future risks? This paper analyses the broad question of how climate change science may provide some insights into these issues. The data provided for the analysis are the product of our new research on global impacts of climate change in agriculture. The questions are analysed across world regions to provide some thoughts on policy development.

1 Reads | 12 Citations
2011
Mar
02
Published new article




Article

The economic value of drought information for water management under climate change: a case study in the Ebro basin

Published: 02 March 2011 by Copernicus GmbH in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

doi: 10.5194/nhess-11-643-2011

0 Reads | 9 Citations
2011
Feb
09
Published new article




Article

Crop yields response to water pressures in the Ebro basin in Spain: risk and water policy implications

Published: 09 February 2011 by Copernicus GmbH in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

doi: 10.5194/hess-15-505-2011

0 Reads | 7 Citations
2010
Dec
01
Published new article




Article

Towards adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the Mediterranean

Published: 01 December 2010 by Springer Nature in Regional Environmental Change

doi: 10.1007/s10113-010-0187-4

This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture on the Mediterranean region. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in regions with current water scarcity, and create new opportunities for improving land and water management. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across Mediterranean areas by analysing water scarcity pressures and potential impacts on crop productivity over the next decades. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating an adaptive capacity index that represents the ability of Mediterranean agriculture to respond to climate change. We propose an adaptive capacity index with three major components that characterise the economic capacity, human and civic resources, and agricultural innovation. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.

0 Reads | 25 Citations
2010
Oct
28
Published new article




Article

Climate change and agricultural adaptation: assessing management uncertainty for four crop types in Spain

Published: 28 October 2010 by Inter-Research Science Center in Climate Research

doi: 10.3354/cr00921

0 Reads | 11 Citations
2009
Jun
01
Published new article




Article

A comparison of the climate risks of cereal, citrus, grapevine and olive production in Spain

Published: 01 June 2009 by Elsevier BV in Agricultural Systems

doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2009.03.006

0 Reads | 16 Citations
2009
Jan
21
Published new article






Methods for Evaluating Social Vulnerability to Drought

Published: 21 January 2009 by Springer Nature in Coping with Drought Risk in Agriculture and Water Supply Systems

doi: 10.1007/978-1-4020-9045-5_11

Social vulnerability to drought is complex and it is reflected by society’s capacity to anticipate, cope with and respond. Here we estimate these aspects of social vulnerability, evaluating the natural resource structure, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and aspects of agricultural innovation. These factors are components of a vulnerability index and they can be weighted appropriately in computing the final value of the index. In this chapter we present the results of the index under two valuation scenarios. For Scenario 1 all components are valued equally. For Scenario 2 the human resources component is given 50% of the weight, the economic and natural resource components are given 20% of the weight each, and the agricultural technology is given 10% of the weight. This reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination and mechanisms for public participation is less vulnerable to drought and that agriculture is only one of the sectors affected by drought. The vulnerability index establishes robust conclusions since the range of values across countries does not change with the assumptions under the two scenarios.

1 Reads | 2 Citations
2009
Jan
01
Published new article






Climate change impacts in Europe. Final report of the PESETA research project

Published: 01 January 2009 by RePEc

doi:

The PESETA research project integrates a set of high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modelling framework to quantify the impacts of climate change on vulnerable aspects of Europe. Four market impact categories are considered (agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, and tourism) and one non-market category (human health). Considering the market impacts, without public adaptation and if the climate of the 2080s occurred today, the EU annual welfare loss would be in the range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate scenario. However, there is large variation across different climate futures, EU regions and impact categories. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and higher sea level rise result in more severe economic damage for the EU. Southern Europe, the British Isles and Central Europe North appear to be the most sensitive regions to climate change. Northern Europe is the only region with net economic benefits, mainly driven by the positive effects in agriculture. Concerning the contribution to the overall effects, coastal systems, agriculture and river flooding are the most important ones.

0 Reads | 0 Citations
2009
Jan
01
Published new article






Impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe. PESETA-Agriculture study

Published: 01 January 2009 by RePEc

doi:

The objective of the study is to provide a European assessment of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural crop production and monetary estimates of these impacts for the European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio economic projections derived from several SRES scenarios and climate projections obtained from global climate models and regional climate models. The work links biophysical and statistical models in a rigorous and testable methodology, based on current understanding of processes of crop growth and development, to quantify crop responses to changing climate conditions. European crop yield changes were modeled under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the period 2071 - 2100 and for the ECHAM4/RCA3 A2 scenario for the period 2011 - 2040. The yield changes include the direct positive effects of CO2 on the crops, the rainfed and irrigated simulations in each district. Although each scenario projects different results, all three scenarios are consistent in the spatial distribution of effects. Crop suitability and productivity increases in Northern Europe are caused by lengthened growing season, decreasing cold effects on growth, and extension of the frost-free period. Crop productivity decreases in Southern Europe are caused by shortening of the growing period, with subsequent negative effects on grain filling. It is very important to notice that the simulations considered no restrictions in water availability for irrigation due to changes in policy. In all cases, the simulations did not include restrictions in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view.

0 Reads | 0 Citations
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