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Somayeh Shadkam  - - - 
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Fulco Ludwig

35 shared publications

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Article 1 Read 3 Citations Impacts of climate change and water resources development on the declining inflow into Iran's Urmia Lake Somayeh Shadkam, Fulco Ludwig, Çağla Kirmit, Pavel Kabat, Pi... Published: 01 October 2016
Journal of Great Lakes Research, doi: 10.1016/j.jglr.2016.07.033
DOI See at publisher website
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Urmia Lake, the world's second largest hypersaline lake, has decreased in size over recent decades primarily because inflow has diminished. This has caused serious socio-environmental consequences similar to those of the Aral Sea disaster. By using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, this study estimates the relative contributions of climate change and water resources development, which includes the construction of reservoirs and expansion of irrigated areas, to changes in Urmia Lake inflow over the period 1960–2010. The model results show that decreases in inflow generally follow observed decreases in precipitation, although the variability in inflow is more pronounced than the variability in precipitation. The results also suggest that water use for irrigation has increased pressure on the basin's water availability and has caused flows to decrease by as much as 40% during dry years. On the other hand, the presence of reservoirs positively contributed to water availability during relatively dry years and did not significantly reduce lake inflow. By accelerating irrigation expansion in the basin, reservoirs have, however indirectly, contributed to inflow reduction. Our results show that annual inflow to Urmia Lake has dropped by 48% over the study period. About three fifths of this change was caused by climate change and about two fifths was caused by water resource development. The results of this study show that, to prevent further desiccation of Urmia Lake, it will be necessary both to develop national plans to reduce irrigation water use and to develop international plans to address climate change.
Article 2 Reads 7 Citations Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change Somayeh Shadkam, Fulco Ludwig, Michelle T.H. van Vliet, Aman... Published: 01 July 2016
Science of The Total Environment, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.190
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PubMed View at PubMed
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Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10(9)m(3) water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake.
DISSERTATION 1 Read 0 Citations Preserving Urmia Lake in a changing world: reconciling anthropogenic and climate drivers by hydrological modelling and p... Somayeh Shadkam
doi: 10.18174/413386
DOI See at publisher website