Top co-authors See all
791 shared publications
Bruce C. Daniels
108 shared publications
36 shared publications
21 shared publications
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg Austria
18 shared publications
National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba Japan
Distribution of Articles published per year
(1982 - 2018)
(1982 - 2018)
Total number of journals
Publications See all
Article 0 Reads 1 Citation Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots Published: 01 May 2018
Environmental Research Letters, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aabf45
Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature(GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those "vulnerable to poverty" from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)(income <$10/day, currently 4.2 billion people). We show that global exposure to multi-sector risks s approximately doubles between 1.5°C and 2.0°C GMT change, doubles again with 3.0°C GMT change and is ~6x between the best and worst cases(SSP1/1.5°C vs SSP3/3.0°C, 0.8-4.7bi). For populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8-32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development(SSP1). Whilst 85-95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91-98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7-17% at 1.5°C, doubling to 14-30% at 2°C and again to 27-51% at 3°C. Finally, beyond 2.0°C and at higher risk thresholds, the world's poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases(SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable.
Article 2 Reads 0 Citations Dams with head increaser effect: Harnessing potential and kinetic power from rivers with large head and flow variation Published: 01 February 2018
Energy Conversion and Management, doi: 10.1016/j.enconman.2017.12.034
There is an enormous untapped potential for hydropower generation in rivers with large head and high flow variation, currently not feasible for conventional hydropower dams. Conventional dams make use of the potential energy, but waste kinetic energy from spillage during periods of high flows. This article studies the possibility of harnessing energy from potential and kinetic energy from hydropower dams with large head and flow variation, analyses its potential, and shows possible technologies. Focus is given to a Moveable Hydro-Electric Power Plant (HEPP) system in which the turbine module can be adjusted according to the flow and water level in the river. During floods the exceeding flows can pass above and below the Moveable HEPP results in a sub-pressure environment after the turbine module, thereby reducing the dam’s downstream head, increasing the pressure difference between the turbine inlet and outlet and the flow through the turbine, which increases the electricity generation of the dam. Dams with head increaser arrangement have been implemented in several dams in the 1930–1950s and now are regaining attention in Middle Europe. The main intention for its implementation is harnessing hydropower generation at run-of-river plants, with low-head, with a 20%–30% cost reduction, lower flooded area at the dam site, the resulting evaporation and the impact on the aquatic fauna. A case study was performed with the proposal of the Aripuanã Moveable HEPP in the Madeira River with a 26 ms height dam and a generation capacity of 1400 MW. The increase in generation with the head increaser effect is as high as 21%. The estimated potential for this technology in the Amazon region is 20 GW. Other potential locations are discussed in the article. Dams with head increaser effect have been successfully implemented and have the potential to become a major alternative for base load renewable energy in the future.
Article 3 Reads 0 Citations Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative Published: 01 July 2017
Earth's Future, doi: 10.1002/2016ef000503
This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30–40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6–2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.
Article 2 Reads 4 Citations Water and climate risks to power generation with carbon capture and storage Published: 01 February 2016
Environmental Research Letters, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024011
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) provides the opportunity to minimize atmospheric carbon emissions from fossil fuel power plants. However, CCS increases cooling water use and few studies have simulated the potential impacts of low flows on CCS power plant reliability. We present a framework to simulate the impacts of natural hydrological variability and climatic changes on water availability for portfolios of CCS capacity and cooling technologies. The methods are applied to the River Trent, the UK's largest inland cooling water source for electricity generation capacity. Under a medium emissions climate change scenario, the projected median reductions in river flow by the 2040s was 43% for Q 99.9 very low flows and 31% in licensable abstractions between Q 99.9 and Q 91. With CCS developments, cooling water abstractions are projected to increase, likely exceeding available water for all users by the 2030s–2040s. Deficits are reduced when wet/dry hybrid tower cooling is used, which may increase reliability at low flows. We also explore alternative water licensing regimes, currently considered by the UK Government. Climate change and growing cooling demands, individually and jointly present risks that will be prominent by the 2030s, if unaddressed. These risks may be managed if water-efficient abstraction is prioritized when supplies are limited.
BOOK-CHAPTER 1 Read 0 Citations Water security at the energy crossroads Published: 28 May 2014
Global Water: Issues and Insights, doi: 10.22459/gw.05.2014.22
Article 2 Reads 0 Citations The Nation of Nantucket: Society and Politics in an Early American Commercial Center, 1660-1820 Published: 01 June 1988
The American Historical Review, doi: 10.2307/1868244