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Günther Fischer  - - - 
Top co-authors See all
Tatiana Ermolieva

46 shared publications

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Yuri Ermoliev

30 shared publications

T. Ermolieva

24 shared publications

International Institute Applied Systems Analysis

Laixiang Sun

17 shared publications

Harrij Velthuizen

6 shared publications

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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Publication Record
Distribution of Articles published per year 
(2005 - 2011)
Total number of journals
published in
 
4
 
Publications See all
BOOK-CHAPTER 1 Read 0 Citations Sustainable Agriculture in China: Estimation and Reduction of Nitrogen Impacts Günther Fischer, WILFRIED WINIWARTER, Tatiana Ermolieva, Gui... Published: 17 October 2011
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-22884-1_16
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In this chapter we present an integrated model for long term and geographically explicit planning of agricultural activities to meet demands under resource constraints and ambient targets. Environmental, resource and production feasibility indicators permit estimating impacts of agricultural practices on environment to guide agricultural policies regarding production allocation, intensification, and fertilizer application while accounting for local constraints. Physical production potentials of land are incorporated in the model, together with demographic and socio-economic variables and behavioral drivers to reflect spatial distribution of demands and production intensification levels. The application of the model is demonstrated with a case study of nitrogen accounting at the level of China counties. We discuss current intensification trends and estimate the ranges of agricultural impacts on China’s environment under plausible pollution mitigation scenarios with a particular focus on nitrogen sources and losses.
BOOK-CHAPTER 2 Reads 1 Citation Sustainable Agriculture, Food Security, and Socio-Economic Risks in Ukraine Oleksandra Borodina, Elena Borodina, Tatiana Ermolieva, Günt... Published: 17 October 2011
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-22884-1_8
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In Ukraine, the growth of intensive agricultural enterprises that focus on fast profits contribute considerably to food insecurity and increasing socio-economic and environmental risks. Ukraine has important natural and labor resources for effective rural development; more than 50% of food production is still contributed by small and medium farms, despite the difficulties associated with economic instabilities and the lack of proper policy support. Currently, the main issue for the agro-policy is to use these resources in a sustainable way, enforcing robust long term development of rural communities and agriculture. In this chapter, we introduce a stochastic, geographically explicit model for designing forward-looking policies regarding robust resources allocation and composition of agricultural production, in order to enhance food security and rural development. In particular, we investigate the role of investments into rural facilities to stabilize and enhance the performance of the agrofood sector in view of uncertainties and incomplete information. The security goals are introduced in the form of multidimensional risk indicators.
Article 2 Reads 3 Citations Extreme events, discounting and stochastic optimization Marek Makowski, Yuri Ermoliev, Tatiana Ermolieva, Guenther F... Published: 08 June 2010
doi: 10.1007/s10479-009-0606-4
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The paper analyzes the implications of extreme events on the proper choice of discounting. Any discounting with constant or declining rates can be linked to random “stopping time” events, which define the internal discount-related horizons of evaluations. Conversely, any stopping time induces a discounting, in particular, with the standard discount rates. The expected duration of the stopping time horizon for discount rates obtained from capital markets does not exceed a few decades and, as such, these rates may significantly underestimate the net benefits of long-term decisions. The alternative undiscounted stopping time criterion allows to induce social discounting focusing on arrival times of potential extreme events rather then horizons of market interests. Induced discount rates are conditional on the degree of social commitment to mitigate risk. In general, extreme events affect these rates, which alter the optimal mitigation efforts that, in turn, change events. The use of undiscounted stopping time criteria requires stochastic optimisation methods.
BOOK-CHAPTER 0 Reads 0 Citations Induced Discounting and Risk Management T. Ermolieva, Y. Ermoliev, G. Fischer Published: 14 October 2009
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-03735-1_4
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The goal of this paper is to specify and summarize new approaches to discounting proposed in our catastrophic risk management studies. The main issue is concerned with justification of investments, which may turn into benefits over long and uncertain time horizon. For example, how can we justify mitigation efforts for expected 300-year flood that can occur also next year. The discounting is supposed to impose time preferences to resolve this issue, but this view may be dramatically misleading. We show that any discounted infinite horizon sum of values can be equivalently replaced by undiscounted sum of the same values with random finite time horizon. The expected duration of this stopping time horizon for standard discount rates obtained from capital markets does not exceed a few decades and therefore such rates may significantly underestimate the net benefits of long-term decisions. The alternative undiscounted random stopping time criterion allows to induce social discounting focusing on arrival times of the main concern (stopping time) events rather than horizons of market interests.
Article 0 Reads 4 Citations Risk-adjusted approaches for planning sustainable agricultural development Günther Fischer, Tatiana Ermolieva, Yuri Ermoliev, Laixiang ... Published: 29 April 2008
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, doi: 10.1007/s00477-008-0231-9
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In this paper we show that explicit treatment of risks and uncertainties in agricultural production planning may considerably alter strategies for achieving robust outcomes with regard to sustainable agricultural developments. We discuss production planning models under uncertainties and risks that may assist in planning location-specific production expansion within environmental and health risk indicators and constraints. The proposed approaches are illustrated with the example of spatially explicit livestock production allocation in China to 2030.
Article 1 Read 0 Citations Livestock production planning under environmental risks and uncertainties Günther Fischer, Tatiana Ermolieva, Yuri Ermoliev, Harrij Ve... Published: 01 December 2006
Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, doi: 10.1007/s11518-006-5018-2
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In this paper we demonstrate the need for risk-adjusted approaches to planning expansion of livestock production. In particular, we illustrate that under exposure to risk, a portfolio of producers is needed where more efficient producers co-exist and cooperate with less efficient ones given that the latter are associated with lower, uncorrelated or even negatively correlated contingencies. This raises important issues of cooperation and risk sharing among diverse producers.