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(1999 - 2018)
(1999 - 2018)
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Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Evaluation of simple methods for regional mortality forecasts Published: 27 September 2018
Genus, doi: 10.1186/s41118-018-0040-z
In recent decades, considerable research effort has been dedicated to improving mortality forecasting methods. While making valuable contributions to the literature, the bulk of this research has focused on national populations—yet much planning and service delivery occurs at regional and local scales. More attention needs to be paid to subnational mortality forecasting methods. The objective of this study was to evaluate eight fairly simple methods of regional mortality forecasting, focusing specifically on the requirements of practising demographers in government and business. Data were sourced primarily from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Retrospective mortality rate forecasts were produced for 88 regions of Australia for 2006–2016. Regional mortality forecast methods were evaluated on the basis of (i) input data requirements, (ii) ease of calculation, (iii) ease of assumption setting and scenario creation, (iv) plausibility of forecast death rates, (v) smoothness of forecast mortality age profiles, and (vi) forecast accuracy. Two of the methods produced noticeably higher forecast errors than the others (National Death Rates and SMR Scaling). Five of the methods were judged to be similar in their overall suitability. Two were particularly easy to implement (Broad Age SMR Scaling and Broad Age Rate Ratio Scaling) and provide a good return on the data and effort required. Two others (Brass Relational and Mortality Surface) produced very smooth mortality age profiles and highly plausible death rates, though were relatively more complex to implement. The choice of mortality forecasting method is important for the accuracy of regional population forecasts. But considerations additional to accuracy are important, including those relating to the plausibility of the forecasts and the ease of implementation.
Article 0 Reads 1 Citation Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts Published: 28 October 2017
Population Research and Policy Review, doi: 10.1007/s11113-017-9450-4
Article 0 Reads 1 Citation Methods for Estimating Sub-State International Migration: The Case of Australia Published: 16 March 2017
Spatial Demography, doi: 10.1007/s40980-017-0032-1
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations The regional pattern of Australia’s largest overseas-born populations Published: 01 January 2017
Regional Studies, Regional Science, doi: 10.1080/21681376.2017.1387601
The first decades of the new millennium have seen a dramatic increase in the level of net overseas migration to Australia. This has been accompanied by growing diversity in the origins of migrants away from the traditional source countries in Northern and Western Europe towards Asia. One result of this trend is an increasingly complex settlement geography. This Regional Graphic paper seeks to represent Australia’s immigrant geography by mapping the largest overseas-born population for regions of Australia using recently released 2016 Census data. The maps reveal a strong regionalization in migrant populations. Patterns reflect the concentration of some smaller migrant groups (e.g., Former Yugoslav Region (FYR) of Macedonia), while larger migrant groups (e.g., the UK) are more dispersed across the continent. Climate and geographical proximity to immigrants’ country of origin are possible factors driving the observed broad-level geographical variation in settlement.
BOOK-CHAPTER 0 Reads 1 Citation The Growth of Australia’s Very Elderly Population: Past Estimates and Probabilistic Forecasts Published: 12 November 2016
In Sickness and In Health, doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-43329-5_7
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Visualising the demographic factors which shape population age structure Published: 22 September 2016
Demographic Research, doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.29
Background: The population pyramid is one of the most popular tools for visualising population age structure. However, it is difficult to discern from the diagram the relative effects of different demographic components on the size of age-specific populations, making it hard to understand exactly how a population’s age structure is formed. Objective: The aim of this paper is to introduce a type of population pyramid which shows how births, deaths, and migration have shaped a population’s age structure. Methods: Births, deaths, and population data were obtained from the Human Mortality Database and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A variation on the conventional population pyramid, termed here a components-of-change pyramid, was created. Based on cohort population accounts, it illustrates how births, deaths, and net migration have created the population of each age group. A simple measure which summarises the impact of net migration on age structure is also suggested. Results: Example components-of-change pyramids for several countries and subnational regions are presented, which illustrate how births, deaths, and net migration have fashioned current population age structures. The influence of migration is shown to vary greatly between populations. Conclusions: The new type of pyramid aids interpretation of a population’s age structure and helps to understand its demographic history over the last century.