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Schalk Jan Van Andel  - - - 
Top co-authors See all
Antonio Araujo

182 shared publications

Department of Medical Oncology, Hospital de Santo António/Centro Hospitalar do Porto, Porto, Portugal

Roland K. Price

14 shared publications

Department for Hydroinformatics and Knowledge Management, UNESCO-IHE, Westvest 7, 2601 DA Delft, The Netherlands

Arnold Lobbrecht

6 shared publications

HydroLogic BV Amersfoort Netherlands

Ines Cherif

3 shared publications

Lab of Remote Sensing and GIS, School of Agriculture , Aristotle University of Thessaloniki , Thessaloniki , 54621 , Greece

15
Publications
0
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103
Citations
Publication Record
Distribution of Articles published per year 
(2008 - 2016)
Total number of journals
published in
 
12
 
Publications See all
Article 0 Reads 6 Citations Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan De Perez, Ha... Published: 02 August 2016
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, doi: 10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.
Article 0 Reads 6 Citations An Experiment on Risk-Based Decision-Making in Water Management Using Monthly Probabilistic Forecasts Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, Florian Pappenberger,... Published: 01 April 2016
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00270.1
DOI See at publisher website
Article 0 Reads 5 Citations Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Soil Moisture at the Catchment Scale Using Remotely-Sensed Energy Fluxes Thomas K. Alexandridis, Ines Cherif, George Bilas, Waldenio ... Published: 21 January 2016
Water, doi: 10.3390/w8010032
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
Despite playing a critical role in the division of precipitation between runoff and infiltration, soil moisture (SM) is difficult to estimate at the catchment scale and at frequent time steps, as is required by many hydrological, erosion and flood simulation models. In this work, an integrated methodology is described to estimate SM at the root zone, based on the remotely-sensed evaporative fraction (Λ) and ancillary information on soil and meteorology. A time series of Terra MODIS satellite images was used to estimate SM maps with an eight-day time step at a 250-m spatial resolution for three diverse catchments in Europe. The study of the resulting SM maps shows that their spatial variability follows the pattern of land cover types and the main geomorphological features of the catchment, and their temporal pattern follows the distribution of rain events, with the exception of irrigated land. Field surveys provided in situ measurements to validate the SM maps’ accuracy, which proved to be variable according to site and season. In addition, several factors were analyzed in order to explain the variation in the accuracy, and it was shown that the land cover type, the soil texture class, the temporal difference between the datasets’ acquisition and the presence of rain events during the measurements played a significant role, rather than the often referred to scale difference between in situ and satellite observations. Therefore, the proposed methodology can be used operationally to estimate SM maps at the catchment scale, with a 250-m spatial resolution and an eight-day time step.
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan, Hannah Loui... Published: 19 January 2016
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, doi: 10.5194/hess-2016-20
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
In order to communicate forecast uncertainty, there has been a gradual adoption of probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts, for diverse activities of the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, set up as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this experiment is to contribute to understanding the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified game situation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community.
Article 0 Reads 2 Citations Framework for Anticipatory Water Management: Testing for Flood Control in the Rijnland Storage Basin Schalk Jan Van Andel, Roland Price, Arnold Lobbrecht, Frans ... Published: 01 April 2014
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, doi: 10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000254
DOI See at publisher website
Article 0 Reads 36 Citations Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? Maria-Helena Ramos, Schalk Jan Van Andel, Florian Pappenberg... Published: 19 June 2013
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, doi: 10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013
DOI See at publisher website ABS Show/hide abstract
The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.
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