Impact of climate change in forest fire generation in Las Tunas, Cuba

In the last decades, the affected area and the severity of forest fires has increased in many regions of the world, and, without farsighted adjustments, it is likely that the climate change increases the intensity and frequency of them. The purpose of this paper is to determine the possible impact of the climate change in generating forest fires in Las Tunas, a vulnerable region to process of aridity, drought, forest fires and furthermore, one of the most deforested regions in Cuba. Considering meteorological variables characteristics, aridity and forest fires behavior, it was developed a long term index which allows to determine zones with favorable conditions to beginning and development of forest fires by month. That created index was evaluated considering the possible changes in meteorological variables in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, in 2020-2049, 2050-2079 and 2080-2099 periods. In general, Las Tunas is moving to warmer conditions, with a reduction in rainfall, especially in the north coast, and a decrease of relative humidity, which will cause more affected zones by aridity and drought, and bigger areas with forest fires danger.