Climatological variations in the intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the North Atlantic basin using the Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity (HuMPI) model

In this study, we investigated the variations in the intensity of the tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the North Atlantic basin from 1982 to 2021, based on the outputs from the Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity (HuMPI) model. To feed HuMPI, we computed the annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the SST average from 1 June to 30 November using the Daily Optimum Interpolation SST database. The information for all major hurricanes (MHs, category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale) was from the HURDAT2 dataset. While the trend (p<0.05) in the mean maximum potential intensity (MPI) was approximately 1.1 m/s per decade for the maximum sustained wind speed and -1.5 hPa/decade for the minimum central pressure, the MHs intensity did not exhibit any statistically significant trend. The behaviour of the MPI could be explained by the increase (p<0.05) of the SST at a rate of 0.20ºC/decade. In addition, the increase of the TCs intensity in the last 20 seasons (2002 – 2021) concerning the period 1982 – 2001 was quite similar for MHs and MPI, being an increase of 3.89% and 3.20% for the mean maximum wind speed, respectively. Meanwhile, the minimum central pressure decreased by about 0.36% in both cases. This latter result is promising for investigating the changes in the TC intensity in global warming based on the HuMPI model.