Ecosystems: climate change vulnerability and resilience

Since 1976, the mean annual temperature over the territory of Russia has been increasing at a rate of 0.47^oC per decade (in the Arctic at 1^oC per decade). This has laid the ground for shifts in biome boundaries and for large-scale ecosystem restructuring. In fact, based on their temperature parameters, biome boundaries common for the late last century should now shift 400 to 500 km northwards in the Arctic and 200 to 300 km northwards in other climate zones. Climate change projections indicate, that these boundaries will likely shift another 200 to 500 km to the north. Most biomes found in the territory of Russia stretch for about 500 km from north to south. In terms of mean annual temperatures practically no biomes in Russia will stay within their last century’s temperature boundaries by the end of 21^st century. The following ecosystems are the most vulnerable to adverse climate change: Arctic (substantial temperature rise), mountain (a large variety of climate-related hazards), steppe (temperature rise-driven aridization) and the Far East (added impacts of extreme precipitation and strong winds). Creation of protected areas has become a priority measure for the adaptation of ecosystems to climate change. On average, federal protected areas account for 7.6 percent of a biome territory across the country; in two biomes, they exceed 70 percent; in five biomes, no federal protected areas have been established. A large share of protected areas is common for mountainous and poorly developed Arctic regions. For the purpose of effective adaptation to climate change, it is advisable to increase the total territory covered by all category protected areas to 17 percent of each biome.