DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF HURRICANE ETA. CASE STUDY USING THE WRF MODEL WITH DYNAMIC UPDATING OF THE SST.

This research has as purpose to carry out a detailed study of the development and trajectory of Eta from numerical modeling, using the ERA5 re-analysis system as a support and complement to the meteorological research and forecast model (WRF) with dynamic update of sea surface temperature (WRF-SST). Specifically, it is intended to describe the synoptic and general circulation environment in which Eta developed using the ERA5 Re-analysis; design experiments with the WRF model, for the simulation of the case study with greater spatial and temporal resolution; and describe, from the numerical outputs, the meteorological conditions that influenced the two analyzed Eta life periods. Through the experiments carried out with the ERA5 and the WRF, a more detailed analysis of the conditions in which Eta developed and moved was achieved. When analyzing the maps of the ERA5 re-analysis system, a general underestimation of the wind speed during the analyzed periods was identified. The first moment was characterized by a system in the development phase that failed to intensity under the influence of a trough over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico that generated a sheared environment. These conditions were maintained during the second moment, when the organism described an erratic trajectory due to the fact that it was under the influence of weak directing currents, until it entered the flow of a ridge that led it to redirect its trajectory towards the north. Through the experiments that were carried out with the WRF-SST and from the numerical outputs, it was possible to describe with greater precision the meteorological conditions that influenced the development, trajectory and intensity changes of Eta.