Who, where, when, and how damages forest – challenges for prediction and control

A method for predicting the spatial and temporal dynamics of traditional forest pests has been developed and implemented. However, due to climate change and anthropogenic activity, the species composition of pests and their role in forest ecosystems continuously change. On the one hand, more than 20 alien forest pests have invaded the forests and urban plantings of Ukraine in recent years. On the other hand, the changes in forest structure have an influence on host trees’ abundance and health condition, and the suitability of forest plots for native and alien pests as well as for their natural enemies. The effect of changing the climate and microclimate of certain forest plots on the seasonal development of pests, their hibernation, and survival should be taken into account when predicting the time of the outbreak start and the dates of pest detection, assessment, and control.

Therefore, the forecast for forest protection covers the following issues:

– which species can damage the forest, planting material, or forest products;

– where (in which regions and forest plots) such damage has economic or ecological consequences;

– how to assess the harmfulness of certain pests and the necessity of their control;

– how to choose the optimal timing for pest detection, assessment, and control.