TEMPERATURE CHANGES AND ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE MORTALITY: GLOBAL TRENDS, 1990-2019

Objectives: Climate change, including non-optimal temperature, is a large health issue that humanity faces. The purpose of this study was to assess the association between global ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and temperature changes.

Materials and methods: A descriptive epidemiological study design was used. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (CI) to evaluate trends in 1990-2019.

Results: Trend for global IHD mortality attributed to high temperature significantly increased both in males (AAPC= +10.4%; 95%CI= 8.0 to 12.8) and females (AAPC= +9.3%; 95%CI= 7.1 to 11.5). A significantly decreased trend for global IHD mortality attributed to low temperature was observed in males (AAPC= -1.7%; 95%CI= -1.8 to -1.6) and females (AAPC= -2.1%; 95%CI= -2.1 to -2.0) in 1990-2019. In 2019, there were no significant differences by sexes in terms of the contribution of non-optimal temperature to global IHD mortality: for low temperature (5.99% in males and 6.19% in females, respectively) and high temperature (0.50% in males and 0.44% in females, respectively).

Conclusion: The effects of non-optimal temperature on the global IHD mortality need to be further elucidated in longitudinal research.