Eco-hydrological modelling of a highly managed Mediterranean basin using the SWAT+ model: a preliminary approach

Highly managed Mediterranean river basins are facing considerable environmental management challenges. Water resource managers are increasingly concerned about the allocation of limited water resources, environmental quality concerns and planning under present and future climatic change and uncertainty. Conventional siloed approaches are not always adequate to address multiple environmental challenges regarding water resources at the watershed scale. In this study, we implemented a watershed-scale eco-hydrological model on the Cervaro river basin (Southern Italy) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model to evaluate the influence of anthropogenic management on water balance components, nutrients and sediment loads from 1990 to 2019. A high-precision land use map derived from administrative sources was used to grasp detailed information regarding landscape patterns. The efficacy of the model is evaluated by comparing modelled and observed streamflow data by assessing the goodness-of-fit objective function values such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the percent of model bias (PBIAS), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R). Preliminary results indicate good model performance reproducing the water balance in the watershed. The calibrated model will be used to analyze the effects of alternative best management practices scenarios on water quality, sediment loads and soil erosion. Future work will be oriented to evaluate the impacts of climate change using data from high-resolution Regional Climate Model projections under different representative concentration pathways.