Projected changes of Etesians regime over eastern Mediterranean in CMIP6 simulations according to SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

The Mediterranean is recognized as one of the most sensitive regions regarding climate change. The northern sector winds are a dominant feature of summer low-tropospheric circulation over the Aegean basin in eastern Mediterranean (EMed). This study is an updated assessment that uses state-of-the-art tools in order to investigate the projected changes of the meridional wind speed and Etesian regime during summer period (June-July-August) over the 21^st century. The analysis is based on 17 Global Climate Models simulations (GCMs) available from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) covering the historical period (from 1971 to 2014) and the future period (from 2015 to 2100) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), an intermediate and a very high emission scenario (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Additionally, results from GCMs analysis are compared to ERA5 reanalysis for the historical period from 1971 to 2000. Our findings suggest that the majority of GCMs reproduce the spatial pattern of Etesians but underestimate the meridional wind speed about 0.5 to 1.0 m/s, as compared to ERA5. During the future period, the meridional wind speed is projected to be increased over the Aegean basin, mainly during the last period of 21st century. Findings show that the majority of GCM simulations (12 out of 17) show an increase of meridional wind speed about 0.2 to 1.4 m/s for SSP5-8.5 and 0.2 to 0.6 m/s for SSP2-4.5, as compared to historical period from 1971 to 2000.