The Influence of Climate Change on the Incidence of Dengue Fever in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

Dengue fever (DF) is very dangerous to people's health in many places around the world. Dengue fever has become more common around the world over the past few decades. The goal of this study was to find out how climate factors affect the number of dengue cases in the Dhaka City Area. We got monthly counts of dengue cases in the Dhaka City Area from 2008 to 2022 from Bangladesh's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare for the study. From 2008 to 2022, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) kept records of the maximum and minimum temperatures (◦C), humidity (g.kg−1), rainfall (mm), sunshine hours (in average number of hours per day), and wind speed (knots (kt)) at Dhaka Station. The Poisson regression model was used first because the data we have is count data. Model 2 (Negative Binomial regression model) was then used. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to rate how well the models fit. In the end, the model with the lowest AIC value was picked (Negative Binomial Regression). The average number of dengue cases goes up when the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, and rainfall all go up. An analysis shows that the number of dengue cases will rise by 3.844 and 4.23 times for every 1 degree Celsius rise in the maximum and minimum temperatures. Again, every 1 mm of extra rain will cause.006 times as many dengue cases. Instead, when relative humidity goes up by one unit, the average number of dengue cases goes down by 0.081 cases. As a result of this study, officials in Bangladesh will be able to come up with a new climate-based alert system and take proactive steps to deal with the Dengue problem.