Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Dry Deciduous Forests in Lesser Himalaya: A Phytosociological Perspective

Tropical dry deciduous forests play a vital role in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services, yet they are increasingly threatened by climate change. This study aims to assess the significance of Pakistan's tropical dry deciduous forests in the context of ecological variables and climate change impacts. A comprehensive phytosociological survey was conducted to understand species composition, vegetation patterns, and environmental drivers influencing these forests. The study area, located in the lesser Himalayan mountains of Pakistan, revealed the presence of 140 woody plant species belonging to 52 families. Through various multivariate analyses, nine distinct plant communities were identified, with the Dodonaea viscosa-Acacia modesta-Dalbergia sissoo community being the most dominant. Cluster analysis grouped these communities into five clusters, highlighting the spatial distribution patterns across the study area. Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) were employed to assess the relative significance of environmental variables in shaping species composition and distribution. Altitude, precipitation, and temperature emerged as primary factors influencing the distribution and composition of tropical dry deciduous forests along the Himalayan foothills. Higher altitude forests, characterised by maximum rainfall and lower temperatures, exhibited rich vegetation diversity, whereas lower altitude forests experienced higher temperatures and lower precipitation levels. Notable discrepancies were observed between protected and unprotected forest areas, emphasising the importance of immediate management interventions and in-situ conservation strategies. Based on the findings, recommendations include adopting mitigation and adaptation approaches to combat the increasing temperature and low precipitation in lower altitude areas. Mitigation strategies such as afforestation and renewable energy promotion, coupled with adaptation measures like forest restoration and community-based conservation, are essential for ensuring the resilience and sustainability of Pakistan's tropical dry deciduous forests in the face of climate change.