Redistribution of Qiongzhuea tumidinoda in Southwest China under Climate Change: a study from 1987 to 2012

Qiongzhuea tumidinoda(a type of dwarf bamboo) stands out as an endemic bamboo species of significant conservation importance in southwest China, particularly in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. It holds a pivotal role in poverty alleviation through the commercialization of its wood and bamboo shoots. However, the suitable area of this species is undergoing rapid changes due to climate change, resulting in species redistribution and potential losses for bamboo farmers. We utilized 209 presence records and 11 selected environmental variables to predict the potential suitable habitats for Qiongzhuea tumidinoda using Maxent and ArcGIS. Our findings revealed a southeastward shift and an elevation increase in the potential suitable habitats of Qiongzhuea tumidinoda. The area of potential suitable habitats in the study region exhibited fluctuating growth, expanding from 3063.42 km2 to 7054.38 km2. Mean monthly potential evapotranspiration (Pet) emerged as a critical determinant in shaping the distribution of potential suitable habitats for Qiongzhuea tumidinoda. Our study sheds light on the response of Qiongzhuea tumidinoda to climate change, offering valuable insights into the development and management of plantation industries associated with this species. In future, considering the high growth rate and possible larger suitable habitats, Qiongzhuea tumidinoda could be cultivated as a major crop to absorb carbon from the atmosphere, thus mitigating climate change.