Substitution of dairy with plant-based alternatives in German children and adolescents:
A modelling analysis on the nutritional and ecological sustainability impact

Introduction

Dairy is an integral part of the diet of children and adolescents, but plant-based dairy alternatives (PBDA) are becoming increasingly popular as part of a sustainable diet. As PBDA have a different nutrient profile than dairy, the potential impact of replacing dairy with PBDA was analysed using model analyses, in terms of nutrient adequacy and ecological indicators.

Methods

Using 7,676 three-day-weighing-dietary records from 1,072 DONALD study participants (3≤19 years; 2000-2022), changes in total daily energy and nutrient intake (as % of German dietary reference intake (DRI)) and estimated greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and land use (LU) per 1000 kcal/day were calculated. For this purpose, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% of the current dairy intake were replaced by the same amount of PBDA. Energy and nutrient content of PBDA (total and fortified) were calculated according to current consumption patterns. Differences to the current intake were analysed using analyses of variance (ANOVA α=0.05).

Results

The substitution of dairy with PBDA showed a significant reduction in GHGE (up to 19.3%) and LU (up to 11.9%). Intakes of protein, vitamin B2 and B12 decreased with increasing substitution levels. Protein intake exceeded DRI even in 100% substitution models, but Vitamin B2 and B12 reached DRI only in models with fortified PBDA. Calcium intake was below the DRI in the current diet (median 76%) and was further reduced with increasing levels of substitution irrespective of fortification. Iron intake improved to almost the level of DRI.

Conclusions

Substituting dairy with PBDA reduced ecological substantially GHGE and LU. Protein is no nutrient of concern; sufficient intake of Vitamin B2- and B12-fortified products are advisable. The initially low calcium intake deteriorated further with substitution of dairy by PBDA. Potential health consequences need to be investigated further.