Climate change impacts the distribution of Kelussia odoratissima Mozaff., an endangered, monotypic, endemic plant in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, Iran

Introduction: Endangered endemic medicinal plants are facing the risk of habitat destruction, overexploitation, and climate change. Predicting their potential distribution accurately using species distribution models (SDMs) can help prevent the loss of plant diversity and ecological destruction caused by climate change. Kelussia odoratissima Mozaff., also known as mountain celery, is a valuable edible and medicinal plant species that is unique to the central Zagros highlands. It is utilized in traditional medicine and contains bioactive components with pharmacological properties. However, due to the environmental impact of population growth, the plant is now at serious risk of extinction.

Methods: In this study, we utilized a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to determine the potential distribution of K. odoratissima in one of the main centers of its distribution, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s.

Results: The MaxEnt model was effective, as evidenced by an AUC value exceeding 0.9. The results indicated that the distribution of this taxon was primarily influenced by the soil organic carbon content, precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13). The model predicted a reduction in suitable habitats for K. odoratissima under all scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s.

Conclusions: These findings are significant for the preservation, management, and continued study of this endangered and medically valuable plant in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province.