Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Oil Spills Using GNOME and GIS Analysis

Oil spills are a serious hazard to coastal ecosystems and communities, with severe socio-economic and biological consequences. In Greece, with a coastline of more than 15,000 km and exceptionally active maritime traffic, there is a high possibility of accidents that could cause oil spills. In this paper, three different oil spill scenarios of different severities were modeled using GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment), a set of modeling tools for predicting the trajectory and fate of marine pollutants and determining which coastlines would be mos affected by an accident. The incidents modeled occurred in Saronikos Gulf, Thermaikos Gulf, and near the island of Kithira. Additionally, wind and current data were incorporated into the process to predict the trajectory and impact of the spills. An Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) was used to assess which parts of the affected areas were most vulnerable to the pollution using the socio-economic, physical, and biological characteristics of the coastline. The model outputs were finally compared to the Environmental Sensitivity Index to delineate areas where high oil concentrations overlapped with those of high vulnerability.

The oil spill modeling showed that in Saronikos Gulf, high concentrations of oil reached vulnerable and non-vulnerable areas. For Kithira, oil reached Antikithira Island, although with a minimal impact. In Thermaikos Gulf, low concentrations of oil reached the vulnerable coastline of the beach close to Katerini. These results showed that the proposed methodology was able to assess the impact of an oil spill on the coastline by modeling its fate and identifying the vulnerability of the area. The presented methodology could help to improve emergency response strategies, as well as dealing with the impact of marine pollution.