Economic Modeling of the Destructive Potential of Extreme Rainfall Events

Flooding is a recurring problem in many cities in Brazil, resulting in significant health, material, financial, and environmental losses. The uncertainty regarding extreme rainfall events due to climate change makes this problem even more challenging, especially for the municipality of Catu, in the state of Bahia, which also suffers from recurrent flooding. Critical points include the Santa Rita neighborhood, its surroundings, the supply center, and the city center. This research focused on analyzing and modeling the destructive potential of intense rainfall in the Santa Rita region (Supply Center) of Catu–BA and its effects on the local economy at different recurrence intervals. Hydrological simulation software based on computational and geoprocessing technologies, such as HEC RAS, HEC HMS, and QGis 3.16, was used. Two-dimensional modeling was applied to assess the flood-prone areas and linear regression was used at different recurrence intervals. The results revealed that the area becomes impassable during flood events, causing significant economic losses, especially for local market vendors. The research concludes that urgent measures are necessary to mitigate the impacts of flooding, proposing the use of modeling and simulation technologies as essential tools for urban management and planning in flood-prone areas. Additionally, the implementation of adequate infrastructure and raising public awareness are crucial to reducing the damage caused by these extreme events.