Predicting the global climate change impacts on invasion risk of alien plant species

Global climate change, including increases in temperature and precipitation, may exacerbate the invasion risk of alien plant species. Predicting the impacts of climate change is crucial for the conservation of native plant species, the natural ecosystem, and agriculture productivity. In this study, the impact of climate change on habitat expansion of an invasive weed, Ardisia elliptica, was studied using a species distribution model under current and future climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The current invasion risk is highest in Oceania, South America, and Africa, affecting up to 31.07% of the total land surface. A risk assessment of 195 countries revealed a risk of invasion in 67 countries with no species occurrence records. Under future climate change scenarios, a significant global expansion of the distribution was predicted, with invasion in South America covering up to 64.85% of the land surface area by 2061–2080. Habitat suitability analysis revealed that 42 countries under the current climate and 75 countries under SSP5-8.5 have habitats with very high suitability for A. elliptica. Additionally, the species has already invaded at least 137 countries, and 52 countries, including Albania, Angola, Argentina, Japan, Uruguay, and New Zealand, are predicted to shift from low-risk to high-risk categories. These findings are crucial for developing effective biosecurity measures and sustainable management strategies at global and national levels for this harmful species.