From Urban to Mountainous Regions: Impact of Various Factors on Butterfly Species Richness, their Prediction, and Habitat Shifts Induced by Climate Change in Jinan, China

Urbanization is a major global phenomenon, highlighting the essential need for biodiversity conservation in urban settings. This study aimed to find the factors affecting butterfly species richness in Jinan City, their habitat suitability, and elevation changes. A total of 2,583 individual butterflies were collected from 23 different sites, representing 50 species across five families. Butterfly species richness showed significant positive correlations with distance from the city center and vegetation density. Conversely, elevation and topographic diversity demonstrated weak positive correlations. A strong negative correlation was observed with human population, while moderate negative correlations were noted with land surface temperature and urban island. The MaxEnt model and the Welch two-sample t-test were employed to assess the influence of bioclimatic variables on the suitable habitats and elevation shifts of butterflies in the city, utilizing Current (1970-2000) and projected climate scenarios. The SSP4.5 2070s and RCP6.0 2070s showed a significant decrease in highly suitable habitats, accompanied by a relocation to the southern mountains of the city. The RCP4.5 2070s showed a significant upward shift in butterfly elevation, whereas the SSP4.5 2090s showed no significant change. Improving habitat diversity, vegetation health, and reducing urban stressors contribute to butterfly conservation in urban environments. This study establishes a foundation for subsequent research and conservation initiatives concerning butterflies in Jinan.