An evaluation of the impact of emissions from airports in Egypt.

Studying the impact of aircraft emissions on the climate and environment is a complex and important issue, especially given the increasing frequency of extreme weather events linked to climate change. In this study, we examine the potential impact of aircraft emissions from four Egyptian airports on their surrounding areas using the Graz Lagrangian dispersion model (GRAL). Furthermore, we investigate how climate change may interact with potential increases in airport capacity in the future. To analyze the dispersion of pollutants emitted by aircraft at the selected airports, we utilized the GRAL model, which incorporates various inputs related to emission sources and meteorological data. The meteorological data for the studied periods (2021, 2025, 2030, and 2035) were derived from the output of the ICTP regional climate model (RegCM4), using the RCP4.5 climate change scenario as input for the dispersion model. The emissions were calculated based on the expected emissions from several aircraft types during 2021, which served as our reference year. We assumed that airport capacity would increase over the coming years until 2035, leading to an expected rise in pollutants emitted by aircraft. Our results indicate that, based on projected rates of emissions for carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides, an increase in the capacity of these airports will not result in pollutant concentrations exceeding the maximum limits established by Egyptian Environmental Law, either at the airports or in the surrounding areas.