Evaluation of the changes in climate and atmospheric composition in the Russian Arctic according to offline-coupled ESM SOCOL and WRF-Chem

Significant climatic changes have been observed in the Arctic over the past few decades. The ongoing increase in the Earth's surface temperature has accelerated permafrost melting and contributed to a rise in the number of wildfires. In addition, state programs aimed at reducing anthropogenic emissions of certain pollutants (e.g., NOx, SO2, CO, etc.) in the future could lead to an increase in ozone (O₃), one of the most harmful atmospheric pollutants. In the future, these and other consequences of climate change in the Arctic could become more dramatic. Therefore, assessments of changes in the climate and atmospheric composition over the next 100 years on a regional scale (~1000 km) are of great importance today. The assessment results could indicate which regions of the Earth will be most affected by future climate change and anthropogenic activity.

One of the most promising approaches for such evaluations is model downscaling, which uses the simulation results of Earth System Models (ESMs) as boundary conditions in regional-scale models. This approach takes into account both global factors of ESMs (e.g., distant pollutant transport) and local factors of regional-scale modelling (such as complex landscapes and anthropogenic activity). In the current study, the model system, which consists of the SOCOLv4 ESM and the regional tropospheric composition model WRF-Chem, is used to evaluate changes in the climate and atmospheric composition in the Russian Arctic over the next ~100 years.

The authors acknowledge Saint-Petersburg State University for research project 116234986.