Impact of biogenic emissions on climate and the ozone layer

We analyze the influence of both biogenic natural emissions and anthropogenic emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOLv4 Earth climate model. To achieve our objective, we simulated climate behavior from 2015 to 2100 using two IPCC scenarios: SSP2-45 and SSP5-85. Additionally, we created an artificial scenario wherein all biogenic emissions in SSP2-45 were replaced with those from the SSP5-85 scenario. The last scenario helps elucidate the contribution of biogenic emissions to the differences observed between the climates simulated with SSP2-45 and SSP5-85. The model results indicate that the impact of using biogenic emissions from the SSP5-85 scenario instead of those from the SSP2-45 scenario for the calculation of the future climate is significant for the tropospheric ozone, potentially leading to an increase of up to 10% in the troposphere. Regionally, changes in tropospheric ozone can vary, showing positive effects in regions like Australia and South Africa, while resulting in a negative response for Russia. The distribution of the surface temperature response resembles the tropospheric ozone change pattern. We observed significant warming in South America and the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, alongside cooling in parts of Russia. A more detailed description of the local and seasonal features will be presented in this talk. The Saint Petersburg State University supported this work under research grant 116234986.