Warming projections of the eastern Mediterranean in CMIP6 simulations according to SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

This study investigates the future temperature changes in the climate-vulnerable region of the eastern Mediterranean. The results from seventeen (17) CMIP6 (6^th Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model simulations are analyzed in order to study the temperature changes. The analysis is focused on the moderate and extreme emissions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). The fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) is used as reference dataset in order to investigate the performance of CMIP6 simulations to accurately reproduce the mean temperature in the eastern Mediterranean region. The results show that CMIP6 model simulations vary regarding their efficiency to capture the mean temperature. In particular, Kling-Gupta efficiency Index (KGE) values fluctuate from -0.13 to 0.46. Future projections show that significant warming is shown during the last period of the 21^st century (related to the historical basis period that covers the years from 1970 to 2000). The continental Balkan and Turkish regions are recognized as the most affected areas regarding future warming. The increase in temperature ranges from 1.5°C to 4.5°C for SSP2-4.5 and from 3.0°C to 8.0°C for SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Finally, the seasonal analysis indicates that summer (JJA) shows the maximum temperature increase compared to the other seasons.