Recent trends in global tropical forest loss: Implications for climate, biodiversity, and disaster risk reduction

Tropical forests are vital for achieving global sustainability, biodiversity, and climate goals. However, despite their social-ecological importance, tropical forest loss (TFL) remains a critical issue. This study addresses three fundamental yet important questions. First, how do TFL rates at the global and regional levels compare between the periods before (2011–2015) and after (2016–2022) the adoption of the SDGs and the Paris Agreement? Second, how do TFL rates across these periods relate to indexes of key ecosystem functions and services—namely, climate change mitigation (MIT), biodiversity conservation (BIO), and disaster risk reduction (DRR, specifically landslides)—and their co-benefits (CBI)? Third, how do TFL rates and these indexes relate to existing protected areas (PAs)? Using remote sensing-derived data and spatial analysis techniques, the results reveal a 34% increase in the global average annual TFL between the two periods, with significant increases observed in South America and Africa. Areas with moderate CBI experienced higher TFL rates in both periods. Although tropical PAs have expanded and are generally located in areas with higher CBI, their effectiveness in curbing TFL has been limited. The average annual TFL within tropical PAs rose significantly by 71% between the two periods. Furthermore, the average annual share of forest loss within tropical PAs, relative to the total TFL in the tropics, also increased significantly by 27%. Nonetheless, signs of a global slowdown in annual TFL rates after 2015 offer hope for reversing these trends. Fully achieving this reversal, however, requires transforming the enabling environment that sustains global TFL by strengthening national policies and effectively implementing international initiatives for sustainable forest management.