Productivity Gains from Climate Adaptation: Micro-Level Insights from Rice Farmers in Southwest Nigeria

The transformation of food systems is essential to addressing the growing threats posed by climate change, particularly for smallholder farmers who rely on rain-fed agriculture. In Nigeria, rice farmers are increasingly vulnerable to unpredictable weather patterns, making the adoption of adaptation practices critical for sustaining yields. This study investigates the determinants of adaptation adoption and its impact on rice productivity in Osun State, Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 100 rice farmers, and data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, the endogenous switching regression model (ESRM), and augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) for robustness.
Findings show that about 59% of the farmers were male, with an average age of 49 years of age, a household size of 6.8, and a farm size of 3.07 hectares, yielding 1045.92 kg/ha. Results from ESR reveal that adopters achieved a 2% productivity increase relative to non-adopters. While low, this gain is meaningful in the context of rain-fed rice farming, where even small improvements in yield can translate into significant food security and income benefits at scale.
This study highlights the role of adaptive practices in strengthening resilience and recommends policies that subsidize inputs, improve extension services, and expand access to weather information systems. These targeted interventions can accelerate adoption and ensure that smallholder farmers are better equipped to cope with climate shocks, ultimately supporting sustainable food system transformation in Nigeria.