Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Processes and Water Balance in the Cervaro River Basin (Italy) Using SWAT+

Mediterranean agroecosystems are increasingly exposed to climate variability and prolonged droughts, threatening water availability and the long-term sustainability of agricultural production. Understanding how climate change may reshape the hydrological dynamics of river catchments is therefore essential to support the development of long-term adaptation strategies.

This study investigates the Cervaro river basin, a key grain-producing area in southern Italy, with the aim of quantifying the impacts of climate change on catchment-scale hydrological processes and water balance components. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model will be applied to simulate the main hydrological fluxes across the basin.

Model calibration and validation will be performed using observed river discharge data and satellite-derived actual evapotranspiration estimates in order to accurately represent the current hydrological conditions of the basin, which will serve as the reference baseline.

Future projections will be assessed through a comparative analysis between the baseline and two future climate scenarios. The first scenario, based on RCP4.5 projections, represents an intermediate mitigation pathway assuming stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. The second scenario, based on RCP8.5 projections, represents a high-emission trajectory assuming continued growth in emissions and a marked increase in temperatures and extreme events.

High-resolution climate model data will be used to drive hydrological simulations under both scenarios, enabling a systematic evaluation of potential changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and other water balance components. The results will provide a quantitative basis for understanding climate-driven shifts in water availability in Mediterranean agricultural systems and inform the development of future strategies for sustainable water resource management.