Sea-Level Rise Scenarios up to 2150 for the Tuscany Coast: The Case of the Northern Sector

Coastal zones, long favored for fertile lands, trade, and mild climates, are now highly exposed to climate change impacts, particularly sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and erosion. By 2060, global low-elevation areas may host over one billion people, facing growing flood risks. Regional sea level is influenced by climatic drivers, tectonics, isostatic adjustments, and circulation. In particular, in the Mediterranean, land subsidence and global warming intensify hazards, threatening infrastructure and heritage. This study examines future SLR along the Northern Tuscany coast, between Pisa and Massa-Carrara, to support adaptation strategies.

A multidisciplinary study was launched to project local SLR and generate flood maps up to 2150 using sea-level data from local stations (PSMSL; ISPRA) and vertical land motion as derived from GNSS networks and MT-InSAR data analysis. High-resolution LiDAR topography (2008–2010), referenced to the ITALGEO 2005 geoid, supported inundation mapping. Results were combined with IPCC-AR6 projections under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. Local subsidence was considered, assuming no major tectonic or volcanic events.

By 2150, under SSP5-8.5, sea levels along the Northern Tuscany coast (465km²) could rise up to 1.5m, flooding 170.7km². Estimates were obtained using a passive approach, where land below the projected water level is considered inundated, regardless of direct sea connection.

The results highlight the vulnerability of Northern Tuscany’s infrastructure and settlements. They stress the need for proactive planning, stronger coastal defenses, and integration of climate risk into development policies. Interdisciplinary collaboration among scientists, planners, and policymakers is essential for resilient and sustainable coastal management under future SLR.