Assessing Dust Storm Frequency and Intensity in Egypt Under Climate Change Scenarios

Dust in the air poses significant risks to human health. Non-respiratory particles larger than 10 micrometers can cause skin irritation and eye inflammation. Dust storms also have negative impacts on agriculture, reducing crop yields by burying seedlings, damaging plant tissue, reducing photosynthetic activity, and increasing soil erosion. Dust storms are a common phenomenon in Egypt, extending hundreds of kilometers, during spring and winter. They significantly impact transportation, sometimes leading to deaths and property damage due to the accompanying strong winds and reduced visibility. Therefore, there is a need to develop an indicator that represents the frequency and intensity of dust events based on different climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Through this study, a dusty days index was calculated based on the maximum daily dust concentration simulated by the ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) over Egypt and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Dust intensity is classified by percentage as follows: normal (75th percentile), high (90th percentile), very high (95th percentile), and extreme (99th percentile). Climate Data Operator "CDO" was used to process the model output netCDF files and perform these calculations. The results of this study show a positive trend in air temperature over Egypt, accompanied by a negative trend in precipitation with the RCP4.5 scenario, which increased with the RCP8.5 scenario, potentially leading to increased dust emissions.