Precipitation and Temperature Projections over Greece using CMIP6 model simulations under different SSP scenarios

This study examines the precipitation and temperature evolution over Greece covering the historical period and 21^st century (the years from 1850 to 2100). Timeseries from multi-model mean precipitation and temperature, averaged over continental Greece, are calculated from twelve (12) CMIP6 (6th Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model simulations to study future changes under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (namely: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). The analysis focuses on the investigation of projected precipitation changes both for annual and seasonal temporal scales. Results indicate a reduction in annual precipitation over continental Greece. The maximum changes are shown under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Annual precipitation is projected to decrease about 20% by the end of 21^st century (relative to the historical period that covers the years from 1980 to 2005; basis period). Spring and autumn shows a reduction of precipitation that rangers between 15 and 30% for SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Additionally, for JJA - the dryer season in Greece – a decrease of about 0.1 to 0.2 mm/day (about 30 to 40% relative to the basis period) is projected under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios too. Regarding temperature, the CMIP6 multi-model mean indicates a substantial warming mainly during the last period of 21^st century. In particular, temperature over continental Greece is projected to increase about 4.0 and 6.0 °C by the end of 21^st century under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively