Ignoring Climate Change May Falsify Conservation Efforts for the Threatened Reptiles of Bangladesh

Climate change is one of the major threats facing our planet in the coming years, and its detrimental impacts on biodiversity are being documented. Numerous threatened species have already experienced population and species-level extinctions as a result of these effects. Detailed information regarding the distribution patterns, habitats, suitable space, and responsible variables that limit and shift the distribution of these threatened species is necessary for effective and targeted conservation planning and forecasting, particularly in situations where they face multiple conservation challenges. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are frequently used to measure the correlation between the occurrence of such species and spatial variables, enabling the extrapolation of this relationship to new areas or time periods. Twelve bioclimatic and seven environmental variables from 100 occurrence points of 37 threatened reptiles of Bangladesh are used to train the Bioclim model under current climatic conditions. The model is then projected into the 2080 climatic scenario to illustrate how collective and individual species are expected to respond to future climate change under various assumptions. Out of the 37 species of threatened reptiles, 10 species (Batagur baska, Chelonia mydas, Lepidochelys olivacea, Dermochelys coriacea, Dopasia gracilis, Lygosoma punctata, Rhabdophis himalayanus, Boiga siamensis, Crocodylus porosus, and Heosemys depressa) are predicted to lose 100% of their suitable climatic space by the year 2080. Elevation and bio-ecological subregions play pivotal roles in shaping and constraining the distribution of these reptiles due to their impact on habitat suitability and climatic conditions. Proactive conservation strategies, such as the establishment and expansion of protected areas within their climatically appropriate space, should be taken into consideration in order to preserve these imperiled species.