Spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of an Italian reclamation landscape: the Piana di Sibari (Calabria, Italy)

Introduction
The reclamation of marshland has significantly reshaped the landscape of many regions across the Italian peninsula. A paradigmatic example of this transformation is the Piana di Sibari (Calabria, Southern Italy), the largest plain in Calabria, extending over approximately 475 km² and including six municipalities with a total population of around 112,000 inhabitants.
As a critical interface between terrestrial and marine systems, the landscape of the Piana di Sibari represents an area of high ecological vulnerability and economic intensity, characterized by a mosaic of agricultural zones, wetlands, archaeological heritage sites, industrial areas, and urban expansion. This paper examines the evolution, status, and future perspectives of three case studies (a citrus rural area, Magna Graecia and Roman archaeological site, and wetland) in the context of ongoing climate change and the occurrence of increasingly intense and aggressive daily precipitation

Methodology
The NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset of daily downscaled climate projections from CMIP6 models was used to evaluate future climate change impacts at the local scale by providing high-resolution climate scenarios for research. In particular, Walter–Lieth diagrams were applied to represent the climatic conditions observed in the recent past (1981–2020) and those projected for the near future (2026–2050) and distant future (2051–2076) in the Piana di Sibari. Moreover, to assess potential risks associated with extreme rainfall events, an analysis of daily precipitation concentration was performed.

Results
The analysis of Walter–Lieth climatic diagrams and precipitation concentration reveals clear evidence of ongoing and projected climatic shifts. Current trends suggest a rise in mean annual temperatures accompanied by a decline in mean precipitation in both the near and long term. At the same time, an increase in precipitation concentration has been detected. These alterations are likely to have significant implications for the management of the heterogeneous landscape of the Piana di Sibari.