Infrastructure Reliability as a Gatekeeper for Productive Electricity Use—Evidence from Rural Nigeria and Policy Implications

Abstract

Introduction:
Rural electrification policy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) increasingly prioritizes the productive use of electricity (PUE) to generate income and sustain decentralized energy systems. However, prevailing intervention models assume that financing, skills, and market access are the primary barriers to adoption. This study tests that assumption by examining whether infrastructure reliability functions not merely as one constraint among many, but as a gatekeeping mechanism that determines whether other factors can operate at all. Using evidence from rural Nigeria, where grid supply averages 2–4 hours daily and mini-grid sustainability is fragile, we test the hypothesis that below a critical reliability threshold, standard determinants of PUE adoption cease to predict behavior.

Methods:
In July 2025, we conducted a cross-sectional household survey (n=249) in two contrasting communities in southwestern Nigeria: one grid-connected with an unreliable supply (Ila-Orangun), and one where the community solar mini-grid had collapsed (Gbamu-Gbamu). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and threshold modeling to examine (1) the magnitude of the underutilization of electricity or access–utilization gap, (2) the predictive power of income, education, and social capital under reliability constraints, (3) the hierarchy of adoption barriers, and (4) household adaptation strategies following infrastructure failure.

Results:
Analysis showed that only 32.4% of electrified households used electricity productively, resulting in a 67.6% access–utilization gap. Above 10–11 hours of daily supply, PUE adoption doubled to 57.7% (OR=7.6, p<0.001); below this threshold, adoption stagnated at 27–30%, and household characteristics (income, education, social capital) showed no significant predictive power. The barrier hierarchy inverted relative to Asian contexts: 76% of non-adopters cited unreliable supply as the primary barrier, versus 24% citing financing. Following mini-grid collapse in Gbamu-Gbamu, we see that adaptation strategies were stratified sharply by wealth: the poorest quintile experienced a 47.8% de-electrification rate, compared to 20% in the wealthiest quintile, revealing a 27.8 percentage-point equity gap.

Conclusions:
Findings support a conditional model of PUE adoption: standard determinants operate only above reliability thresholds. In severely constrained environments, infrastructure quality acts as a gatekeeper, rendering demand-side interventions (equipment subsidies, credit, training) ineffective unless reliability is first assured. Policy implications are as follows: (1) sequence interventions by prioritizing reliability improvements before deploying demand-side support; (2) redefine success metrics to reflect tier-specific reliability within frameworks like the Multi-Tier Framework; and (3) treat infrastructure sustainability as an equity imperative, given that system collapse disproportionately harms poor households. This study urges a reorientation of energy policy from access provision to quality-assured service delivery as a prerequisite for productive use and inclusive development.