Towards Climate-Resilient Affordable Housing in Addis Ababa: An Analysis of Heat Islands

Due to rapid urbanization, cities in developing countries are increasingly affected by climate change, including rising urban temperatures. Understanding the spatiotemporal relationship between Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) change and Land Surface Temperature (LST) is crucial for sustainable, affordable housing development and for ensuring urban resilience by monitoring the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This study employed remote sensing data to explore the spatiotemporal relationship between LULC and LST in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In addition, the study analyzed the spatial variabilities of LST values and the relationship between LST and different spectral Indices. Random Forest (RF) and geostatistical methods were employed for LULC classification and for determining the spatial variabilities of LST, respectively.

The findings highlight the increases in built-up areas between 2015 and 2020 and between 2020 and 2025. In comparison, vegetation and bare land LULC have decreased from 2015 to 2020 and from 2020 to 2025. The LULC also correlated with the LST. The highest mean LST value was found in the built-up areas. Bare land had the second-highest mean LST value after built-up areas. Vegetation land cover had the lowest mean LST value. The correlation analysis indicated a negative relationship between LST and the NDVI, SAVI, and MNDWI. In contrast, positive correlations were found between LST and the BSI and the NDBI. The results from the hotspot analysis revealed significant heat islands (hotspots) in the city center in 2015. However, heat islands have expanded rapidly to the outskirts of cities, implying gaps in the climate resilience of affordable housing units. The study's insights highlight the need for preventive measures in hotspot areas by integrating resilient design into affordable housing through actionable strategies to enhance its resilience and sustainability amid rapid urbanization and climate change. Increasing vegetation cover, using light-colored buildings, and incorporating green infrastructure have helped mitigate the rising heat effect in affordable housing areas.