Prediction of Synergic Effect of Walkability and Carbon Readiness to Promote Sustainable Mobility in an Industrial Township

Planned industrial townships were historically designed with compact neighborhoods, functional land-use distribution, and strong internal accessibility; however, rising private vehicle dependence and spatial dispersion are weakening their inherent pedestrian orientation. Prior studies on sustainable mobility in such settlements have primarily examined walkability, urban form, or low-carbon transport transitions in isolation. The interactive or synergic relationship between pedestrian-supportive environments and carbon transition readiness—defined as the spatial and infrastructural capacity to enable low-emission mobility—remains insufficiently understood, particularly in industrial township contexts.

This research proposes an integrated predictive framework to evaluate how walkability and carbon readiness jointly influence sustainable mobility potential. Composite indices are constructed using primary travel behavior surveys, pedestrian environment assessment, and spatial metrics including connectivity, land-use proximity, density, and modal accessibility. Multi-criteria aggregation and spatial overlay analysis are employed to identify convergence zones where pedestrian-friendly morphology coincides with high readiness for low-carbon mode adoption. Scenario-based testing further estimates the potential shift of short motorized trips toward non-motorized and public transport modes under targeted improvement strategies.

The results demonstrate that areas exhibiting both high walkability and carbon readiness present disproportionate opportunities for reducing short-distance motorized travel and associated emissions. By linking urban form characteristics with transition readiness, the study advances an integrated methodological approach for planning sustainable mobility in industrial townships. The framework offers decision-support for prioritizing pedestrian-oriented and low-carbon mobility interventions in similar planned industrial settlements undergoing motorization transition.