EventsThe 2nd International Online Conference on Mathematics and Applications
Published
This submission belongs to the session S3. Statistics and Operational Research of the event The 2nd International Online Conference on Mathematics and Applications
Published date
04 Jun, 2026
Academic Editor
author-avatarAntonio Di Crescenzo
Citation
Fatna Bensaber, On Seasonal Autoregressive Processes Inference, in Proceedings of The 2nd International Online Conference on Mathematics and Applications, 10 June–12 June 2026, MDPI: Basel, Switzerland
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On Seasonal Autoregressive Processes Inference

Fatna Bensaber 1
1. Departement of Mathematics, Abou Bakr Belakid University of Tlemcen, Tlemcen, 13000, Algeria., Algeria
Abstract

In the study of several real time series and other major fluctuations such as the trend,the cycle and the noise, the presence of seasonal fluctuations is one of the most important issues.
The investigation has an established practice provided that seasonal variations have been
regarded as a disruptive element and then must be eliminated. However, these fluctuations are
an integral part that must be studied in order to evaluate and forecast the studied model. A
well-known practice for modeling seasonal data is to utilise an autoregressive model that is able
to handle the presence of the seasonal patterns in the data. Autoregressive models are a kind
of time-series model that utilise lagged values of the target variable to make predictions about
future values. Notice that despite the fact that these data are obtainable in practice as sequences of discrete
observed values, they are basically approached as functions. Functional autoregressive models are well known for the analysis of time series
analysis. However, basic formulation is not suitable for investigating the seasonal behaviour
in functional time series data. Hence, we introduce seasonal functional autoregressive processes to model time series. For the autoregressive process of order one, we provide
conditions of stationarity and formulate limit theorems, and supply methods of estimation
and prediction. The worthiness of these models is displayed via algorithmic investigations.

Keywords
Autoregressive process
Estimation
Functional data
Seasonality
Poster
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