Comparative Techno-Economic Analysis of Offshore and Onshore Wind Farms in Zafraana, Egypt, Using the System Advisor Model (SAM)

Optimizing wind energy deployment is a major priority as Egypt accelerates its transition to renewable power to meet its 42% renewable electricity target by 2035. In this study, we present a comparative techno-economic assessment of two 200 MW wind farm configurations located in the Zafraana region: one onshore and one offshore. By leveraging the System Advisor Model (SAM) and integrating high-resolution meteorological data from the Global Wind Atlas, we simulated the energy yield and financial metrics of both setups under standardized conditions over a 25-year period. Both configurations utilize 200 Mitsubishi MWT-1000A turbines, with hub heights optimized for their specific environments (90 m onshore and 120 m offshore). Our findings reveal a distinct technical advantage for the offshore environment. Benefiting from a highly consistent coastal wind profile, the marine installation generates 445.7 GWh of annual energy, which is 58.8% more than the 280.6 GWh produced by its land-based counterpart. However, this increased output comes with a steep financial trade-off. Driven by massive initial capital investments and complex marine logistics, the offshore system requires a capital expenditure of $806.2 million, representing a 135% increase over the onshore system's $342.6 million. Consequently, the offshore configuration exhibits a substantially higher real Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of 17.71 ¢/kWh and an extended payback period of 17.5 years, compared to the onshore LCOE of 10.22 ¢/kWh and a 9.8-year payback. Ultimately, while offshore wind remains essential for long-term decarbonization targets, our analysis indicates that onshore installations currently provide a more economically viable, lower-risk pathway for near-term capacity expansion.