Optimizing energy planning in countries with extreme climates: a methodological proposal for the Colombian case

Hydroelectric dependence in countries with extreme climates, such as Colombia, exposes the electricity system to significant price volatility and the risk of energy deficits during prolonged drought periods. These conditions highlight the need for medium-term planning strategies that incorporate diversified energy sources and mechanisms to enhance system stability. This paper proposes a methodological framework for medium-term energy planning that integrates several key components: (i) characterization of renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, and hydrogen; (ii) price stabilization strategies aimed at reducing electricity market volatility; (iii) economic and energy feasibility criteria (EFF) for project evaluation; (iv) conceptual analysis of regional energy interconnections; and (v) the formulation of an optimization model to balance energy supply and demand under extreme climate scenarios. Within this framework, the energy transition is considered a central strategy for expanding the diversity of the national energy matrix. In particular, hydrogen is analyzed as an energy carrier and storage alternative that can mitigate risks associated with hydroelectric dependence. The integration of hydrogen with non-conventional renewable sources, such as solar and wind power, provides opportunities to improve system stability and long-term sustainability. The proposed framework also incorporates uncertainty related to environmental, social, and economic impacts in the areas influenced by renewable energy projects. Additionally, price stabilization strategies are evaluated as mechanisms to reduce electricity market volatility through technical and contractual tools, including coordination among distribution grid operators, demand flexibility mechanisms, energy storage solutions, and greater integration of intermittent renewable energy sources. Overall, the study contributes a structured methodological approach for energy planning in countries exposed to extreme climate variability, supporting decision-making processes aimed at improving energy security, price stability, and the integration of renewable energy technologies.