Restructuring the SAFE Model by Integrating Multi-Temporal LULC Projections and Regulatory Constraints for Land Carrying Capacity Assessment

Coastal settlements worldwide face mounting pressure from rapid urbanization, ecological degradation, and climate-induced changes in the landscape. Nonetheless, traditional models of land-based carrying capacity (LCC) have failed to capture the dynamic interactions between terrestrial and marine systems. In international practice, the principles of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) establish three non-negotiable spatial boundaries: ecological conservation buffers, regulated coastal setback zones, and infrastructure corridors, which existing LCC models systematically overlook. This systemic limitation is particularly evident in India, as regional capacity planning relies heavily on the Sustainable Accommodation through Feedback Evaluation (SAFE) model, a tool tailored for inland urban geographies. Extending this framework to coastal settings introduces structural distortions by relying on static developable areas that completely ignore temporal land-use changes, progressively eroding the actual capacity and urban-centric floor area ratio (FAR) norms bypassing the restrictions mandated under the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) notification 2019. By failing to account for high tide line setbacks, mangrove buffers, and the distinct zoning rules across CRZ-I, II, and III, the model produces inflated capacity estimates that conflict with ecological mandates.
To address this gap, the paper proposes a restructured SAFE framework where multi-temporal LULC change analysis and CA-Markov-based land-use projection dynamically redefine the model's developable area variable, while CRZ-differentiated FAR norms and fishing-community-adjusted floor space standards replace its urban-centric density assumptions, altogether resulting in scenario-based carrying capacity trajectories rather than a static threshold. The framework is proposed for application across 14 coastal Gram Panchayats in Ganjam district, Odisha, a region characterized by rapid urban expansion, expanding port and tourism infrastructure, and critical coastal ecosystems where conventional land-budgeting approaches are expected to produce planning choices misaligned with ecological and regulatory ground realities. Consequently, this study advances land carrying capacity into a temporally dynamic, regulation-grounded methodology that is globally scalable, offering a transferable framework replicable across diverse international coastal regimes by substituting local regulatory parameters.