Spatio-temporal variation and trends in temperature and rainfall in Casablanca-Settat region, Morocco

This study analyses the spatio-temporal variation and trends in temperature and rainfall in the Casablanca-Settat region of Morocco over the past 30 years (1993-2022) using high-resolution climate datasets. By examining monthly, seasonal and annual trends, the study identifies significant climatic shifts, characterized by rising temperatures and declining precipitation as a case study in Casablanca-Settat inland regions of Morocco. The results indicate a statistically significant increase in both maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures, with Tmax rising by up to 5°C per decade and Tmin by 2.5°C per decade, posing critical risks for agriculture, water resources, and human health. Additionally, precipitation patterns exhibit high interannual variability, with alternating drought and wet years. A notable drying trend is observed, particularly in the wet season (November–January), with rainfall decreasing by 1–2 mm per year, exacerbating water scarcity and soil degradation risks. Spatial analyses reveal that coastal areas receive more stable precipitation, whereas southern and lower-elevation regions experience intensified drying trends. The study further highlights the socio-economic implications of climate variability, emphasizing the increased vulnerability of rainfed agriculture, food security risks, and the need for adaptive water management strategies. These findings underscore the urgent necessity for climate-resilient agricultural policies and sustainable land management practices to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change in Morocco’s key economic and agricultural region.