Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Drivers of Vegetation Greening in Punjab, Pakistan (2020–2025): Disentangling Climatic and Anthropogenic Influences

Understanding the drivers of vegetation dynamics in arid and semi-arid regions is critical for achieving sustainable land management and ecological resilience. In Pakistan’s Punjab province, which includes the Cholistan Desert, ecosystems face severe risks from the unplanned exploitation of land and water resources. These pressures are further intensified by climate variability, leading to increased vulnerability of vegetation cover and agricultural systems. This study aims to evaluate the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation changes in Punjab over five years from 2020 to 2025. Utilizing MODIS NDVI satellite data at a 250-meter resolution, the research quantifies spatiotemporal trends in vegetation activity across different ecological zones of the province. The Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to determine the significance and magnitude of these trends. To distinguish between driving forces, the study employs Pearson’s correlation between NDVI and key climatic factors, including precipitation and temperature, followed by a threshold segmentation method. This approach enables the identification of areas where vegetation changes are primarily climate-driven and those influenced by human interventions such as irrigation expansion, land use change, and ecological restoration programs. The findings are expected to provide a clearer understanding of vegetation response patterns under combined natural and anthropogenic influences. These results offer valuable guidance for provincial policymakers to design targeted management strategies that address land degradation, improve resource use efficiency, and support long-term ecological sustainability in this environmentally sensitive region.