Climate Change and the Shifting Ecology of Vector-Borne Diseases: A One Health Systematic Review

Abstract

Introduction: Global climate change increasingly threatens ecosystem stability by driving geographic expansion and intensified transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in animals. Because human, animal, and environmental health are inextricably linked, a One Health evaluation of climate-driven shifts in arthropod vector ecology is urgently needed. This review synthesizes evidence on how warming, altered precipitation, and extreme weather events reshape veterinary VBD epidemiology, with cascading consequences for animal welfare, agricultural economics, wildlife conservation, and zoonotic risks.

Methods: A PRISMA-guided systematic search of PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and CAB Abstracts was performed for studies published from 2020 onward, focusing on climate-associated changes in vector ecology and transmission dynamics at the human animal environment interface. Data extraction emphasized mechanistic pathways (e.g., extrinsic incubation period, vector competence), predictive models, and studies integrating Earth observation data land surface temperature, NDVI, and ecological niche modeling tools (MaxEnt, BIOMOD) to project vector distributions under climate scenarios.

Results: Temperature emerged as the dominant driver of vector expansion, consistently accelerating vector development and shortening pathogen extrinsic incubation periods. Remote sensing and niche models frequently predicted substantial poleward and altitudinal habitat shifts for mosquitoes, ticks, and Culicoides midges. These projections align with recent field-documented emergences: Bluetongue virus serotype 3 and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease virus in Europe, northward spread of the Asian longhorned tick (Haemaphysalis longicornis) transmitting Theileria orientalis Ikeda in North America, and climate-linked resurgences of Western Equine Encephalomyelitis virus in South America and Japanese Encephalitis virus in Oceania. Extreme climate oscillations, notably El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, catalyze mosquito-borne outbreaks by creating transient optimal breeding habitats. However, significant data gaps in tropical regions and uncertainties in downscaled climate projections limit predictive model precision.

Conclusions: Climate change acts as a potent threat multiplier for veterinary VBDs, exposing naïve animal populations to novel pathogens. Mitigation requires an integrated One Health framework combining genomic surveillance, high-resolution ecological niche modeling with satellite-derived climatic variables, international biosecurity collaboration, and adaptive veterinary public health policies.